The Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) has released a report that could significantly reshape the global energy landscape, suggesting that wind and solar energy can form the backbone of stable, resilient, and cost-competitive power systems worldwide. The report, ‘Power Systems Transformation: Delivering Competitive, Resilient Electricity in High-Renewable Systems’, challenges the notion that fossil fuels are indispensable for reliable electricity supply.
ETC, a coalition of energy sector leaders committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, presents evidence that global electricity demand could triple by mid-century, with wind and solar energy poised to meet the majority of this demand. The report asserts that numerous countries can operate power systems with 70% or more electricity generated from wind and solar sources using currently available technologies, such as battery storage, energy storage, long-distance transmission, and flexible energy consumption.
The report highlights regional nuances, noting that ‘Sun Belt’ countries like India, Mexico, and those in Africa can reduce power system costs by adopting low-cost, solar-dominated systems. In contrast, ‘wind belt’ countries like the UK, Germany, and Canada face higher balancing costs but can still establish affordable and stable energy systems through intelligent policies and innovation. Long-distance transmission lines are identified as a cost-effective solution for balancing supply and demand in many areas.
ETC chair Adair Turner emphasized the dominant role of wind and solar energy, stating, “Multiple technologies, including nuclear and geothermal, may play a role in zero-carbon power systems. But wind and solar will be the dominant source of power in most countries, providing 70% or more of electricity at costs at or below today’s fossil-based systems.”
The report underscores the technical feasibility of wind and solar-dominated systems maintaining stability and resilience, debunking myths about increased blackout risks. It also notes that high wind and solar systems can be competitive with today’s wholesale prices and grid costs, with Sun Belt countries potentially seeing costs halve by 2050.
However, the report acknowledges that the final stage of decarbonisation will be the most costly, particularly for nations requiring ultra-long duration balancing to manage seasonal supply and demand fluctuations. It advises shifting focus to electrification once low carbon intensity levels are achieved.
The ETC calls for collaboration among policymakers, the power industry, and financial institutions to plan large-scale wind and solar systems effectively, accelerate power market reforms, expedite planning approvals, and minimize deployment bottlenecks.
This report could galvanize global efforts to transition to renewable energy, challenging energy policies and investments that prioritize fossil fuels. It may also spur innovation in balancing and grid technologies, and encourage greater cooperation among countries to share best practices and technologies. The energy sector should brace for a potential paradigm shift, with wind and solar energy taking center stage in the global power system.