The UK faces a stark choice: ramp up domestic oil and gas production or become increasingly reliant on imports, according to new analysis. Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) warns that without government support, the UK could be importing 80% of its oil and gas by the end of the decade. This shift would not only challenge energy security but also economic and environmental goals.
Independent research by Westwood Global Energy Group reveals that up to 7.5 billion barrels of oil and gas remain recoverable in UK waters—3.2 billion more than current official estimates. This volume could meet half the country’s demand to 2050, even as the Climate Change Committee projects the UK will still need between 13 and 15 billion barrels of oil and gas by that year to support its net-zero transition. Yet, under current policies, the UK is on track to produce less than a third of this potential.
OEUK Chief Executive David Whitehouse frames the issue as a matter of prioritisation: “This is not about oil and gas versus wind but about whether we prioritise homegrown oil and gas over imports.” He argues that acting now could allow the UK to meet more of its energy needs from domestic resources, including renewables. “We need it all,” he says.
The report highlights that most of the remaining recoverable oil and gas is located within 50km of existing infrastructure, making it quicker, cheaper, and less carbon-intensive to develop than new standalone projects. Many of these fields could be tied back to existing platforms, extending their lifespans and preventing the loss of critical infrastructure. Whitehouse warns that without investment, 180 of the UK’s 280 active fields could shut by 2030, a scenario he describes as a “self-inflicted collapse” of the offshore energy sector.
The economic stakes are high. Developing the additional 3.2 billion barrels could add £165 billion to the economy, with a total of £385 billion if the UK meets half its oil and gas demand domestically. Environmentally, importing LNG carries up to four times the carbon footprint of UK-produced gas, strengthening the case for leveraging local resources.
OEUK is calling on the government to support ongoing production, reform the windfall tax, and avoid policies that could accelerate the decline of North Sea production. The UK is already at a record 40% of imported energy, with policy decisions—not geology—driving this trend. The message is clear: without intervention, the UK risks losing control of its energy future.
This analysis could reshape the debate around energy security, economic resilience, and climate policy. If the government heeds OEUK’s warnings, it may trigger a rethink of how the UK balances domestic production with its net-zero commitments. The coming years will be critical in determining whether the UK can maintain energy independence while transitioning to a greener future.