In the heart of Mexico, a groundbreaking study is shedding new light on the country’s solar energy potential, offering a roadmap for investors and policymakers alike. Led by Jorge Manuel Barrios-Sánchez, a researcher at the Universidad de Guanajuato, the study combines cutting-edge mathematical techniques with system dynamics to model the growth of photovoltaic (PV) capacity in Mexico. The findings, published in the journal ‘AIMS Energy’ (which translates to ‘Goals Energy’), could reshape how we think about renewable energy transitions and their commercial impacts.
Mexico, with its abundant solar resources, is poised to become a solar powerhouse. However, predicting the growth of PV capacity is no simple task. It involves a complex interplay of factors, from public investment and subsidies to market saturation and structural limitations. This is where Barrios-Sánchez’s work comes in. He and his team have developed a novel estimation method that incorporates fractional calculus (FC) into the system dynamics framework, allowing for more precise simulations and valuable insights into PV capacity growth under different scenarios.
The study’s methodology is a testament to its innovative approach. It begins with an exponential growth model to simulate the early stages of PV capacity expansion, incorporating key variables such as public investment and subsidies. But the real magic happens in the second phase, where a sigmoidal growth model is applied to represent more realistic capacity limits. This is where the fractional calculus comes into play, capturing the complexity of the system’s dynamics, including memory effects.
“The fractional parameter is crucial,” Barrios-Sánchez explains. “It allows us to model the system’s memory, providing a more accurate representation of reality.” The sensitivity analysis performed on both models revealed that a fractional parameter of approximately 0.8652 provided the best fit to actual data from 2015 to 2023, reducing the average error to 16.52%. This is a significant improvement over traditional methods, offering a more reliable tool for energy planning.
So, what does this mean for the future of solar energy in Mexico? The projections are promising. According to the study, Mexico’s installed photovoltaic capacity could range between 23,000 and 25,000 MW by 2030, aligning with the expected market dynamics and national energy goals. This growth could attract significant investment, create jobs, and contribute to Mexico’s energy security and sustainability.
But the implications of this study extend beyond Mexico’s borders. The methodology developed by Barrios-Sánchez and his team could be applied to other countries, providing a valuable tool for energy planning and policy design. It could help optimize energy resources, promote renewable technologies, and ensure a successful transition to a sustainable energy future.
As the world grapples with the challenges of climate change and energy security, studies like this one offer a beacon of hope. They show that with the right tools and approaches, we can model complex systems, make informed decisions, and pave the way for a sustainable future. And for investors and policymakers in the energy sector, this study offers a compelling roadmap for navigating the complexities of renewable energy transitions. The future of solar energy in Mexico—and beyond—looks bright.