Simon Woodruff, a researcher at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), has developed a comprehensive costing framework for fusion power plants. This work, conducted over seven years, aims to provide a standardized, auditable method for estimating the costs of fusion energy, which could significantly impact the energy industry’s pursuit of this potentially transformative power source.
Woodruff’s research began with early efforts to estimate the capital costs of fusion plants using existing scaling relations and benchmarking studies with engineering and construction firms. These initial studies were calibrated to ensure that the cost estimates were reasonable from an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) perspective. As the ARPA-E’s fusion portfolio expanded, the methodology evolved to include a more detailed treatment of indirect costs and cost-reduction pathways, such as design-for-cost practices, modularization, centralized manufacturing, and learning.
In 2023, the costing framework was refactored to align with international standards set by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Key scaling relations derived from previous fusion power plant studies were replaced by bottom-up subsystem models for dominant fusion cost drivers, such as magnets, lasers, power supplies, and power-core components. These models were coupled with physics-informed power balances and engineering-constrained radial builds to provide more accurate cost estimates.
The developed framework was implemented in a spreadsheet-based tool called Fusion Economics (FECONs) and later released as an open-source Python framework (pyFECONs). This tool provides a transparent mapping from subsystem estimates to standardized accounts and a consistent computation of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), a key metric for comparing different energy technologies.
The practical applications of this research for the energy sector are significant. By providing a standardized, auditable costing framework, Woodruff’s work can help fusion energy developers and investors make more informed decisions. It can also facilitate comparisons between different fusion concepts and identify cost-reduction opportunities. Furthermore, the open-source nature of the tool encourages collaboration and further refinement of the costing methodology, ultimately accelerating the development of fusion energy as a viable and competitive option in the global energy mix.
This research was published in the journal “Fusion Engineering and Design.”
This article is based on research available at arXiv.