In the realm of solar activity and its impacts on Earth, researchers B. Sargsyan and A. Chilingarian from Yerevan Physics Institute in Armenia have been closely monitoring the 25th solar cycle, which has already proven to be more active than its predecessor. Their recent findings, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, shed light on significant events that could have implications for the energy sector, particularly in space weather forecasting and mitigation.
The 25th solar cycle has already witnessed several notable events, including a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE77) on November 11, 2025, following an X5.1 class solar flare. This was succeeded by a strong Forbush decrease (FD) on January 19 and 20, 2026, during one of the most intense geomagnetic storms of the current solar cycle. These events were recorded by a global network of neutron monitors and SEVAN detectors at various altitudes.
The researchers utilized spectrometric capabilities to reconstruct energy spectra of missing neutrons and muons during the FD and compared them with corresponding spectra measured during GLE77. Their analysis revealed that FD and GLE signatures are intrinsically asymmetric. FDs selectively suppress the preexisting galactic cosmic ray population, while GLEs introduce an additional, harder particle component. Moreover, neutron and muon channels exhibited markedly different spectral behavior, particularly at higher deposited energies, reflecting their sensitivity to different primary energy ranges.
The findings demonstrate that combined neutron monitor (NM) and SEVAN observations provide robust, complementary diagnostics of rigidity-dependent cosmic ray modulation during extreme heliospheric disturbances. This enhanced understanding of solar activity and its impacts on cosmic rays can inform better space weather forecasting, which is crucial for the energy sector. Accurate predictions of solar storms and their effects on Earth’s magnetosphere can help protect critical infrastructure, such as power grids and satellite communications, from potential disruptions caused by space weather events.
In practical terms, the energy industry can leverage these insights to develop more resilient systems and contingency plans. For instance, power grid operators can implement protective measures during periods of heightened solar activity to prevent geomagnetically induced currents from damaging equipment. Similarly, satellite operators can take precautions to safeguard their assets from increased radiation levels during solar storms. By integrating these findings into their operations, energy companies can minimize the risks posed by space weather and ensure the reliable delivery of energy to consumers.
As the 25th solar cycle continues to unfold, the research conducted by Sargsyan and Chilingarian will contribute to a deeper understanding of solar activity and its consequences for Earth. This knowledge will be invaluable for the energy sector as it navigates the challenges posed by space weather and strives to maintain the stability and security of global energy systems.
This article is based on research available at arXiv.