Researchers from ETH Zurich, including Luna Bloin-Wibe, Erich Fischer, Leonard Göke, Reto Knutti, Francesco de Marco, and Jan Wohland, have published a study in the journal Nature Communications that examines the complex interplay between climate change and the design of future European power systems.
The study focuses on the concept of “net load,” which is the residual demand for power after accounting for renewable energy generation. By analyzing historical and future climate data, the researchers assessed how climate change could impact net load under various energy system designs. They considered eight different scenarios inspired by the European Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP), each with different levels of transmission expansion and renewable energy integration.
One of the key findings is that the impact of climate change on net load is highly sensitive to the design of the energy system. This means that future power systems can be designed to either mitigate or exacerbate the effects of climate change. For instance, wind-dominated systems with current levels of electrified heating may experience a 30% increase in high net load events under climate change, primarily during summer and fall. Conversely, fully electrified net-zero systems might see a 50% decrease in high net load events in winter and spring due to climate change.
The researchers emphasize the importance of considering the non-linear interactions between climate change and energy system design. They argue that current approaches often focus narrowly on “cold Dunkelflauten” (periods of low wind and solar generation during cold weather), but a broader perspective is needed to fully understand and prepare for the range of possible climate impacts on future power systems.
This research highlights the need for robust and flexible energy system planning that can adapt to both climate change and technological uncertainties. By doing so, the energy sector can enhance resilience and ensure reliable power supply in a net-zero future. The study was published in Nature Communications.
This article is based on research available at arXiv.