Researchers from the Institute for Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (IER) at the University of Stuttgart, including Veronika Brooks, Joshua Fragoso García, Lin Zheng, Viktor Paul Müller, Christoph Nolden, Dominik Möst, and Martin Wietschel, have published a study in the journal Applied Energy that explores the potential for global hydrogen imports in 2050. Their work focuses on renewable hydrogen production potential in countries that might become import-oriented, and it provides case studies for the United States and China.
The study uses a GIS-based model to calculate renewable energy potentials and 2050 primary energy consumption projections to identify candidate importers by comparing supply and demand. The researchers applied two approaches: a meta-analysis of literature on hydrogen production potential and demand for identified countries, and detailed regional analyses for the United States and China.
The findings suggest that a fully global hydrogen market is unlikely. Instead, hydrogen trade will likely remain regionally concentrated, influenced by factors such as renewable resource distribution, energy demand, other available hydrogen production pathways, and infrastructure constraints. Certain countries, such as Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, are expected to remain net importers due to limited renewable resources and high energy demand.
In contrast, many Asian countries have sufficient renewable resources to decarbonize their energy systems. The United States is well-positioned to meet its overall hydrogen demand using domestic resources but could still benefit from regional connections with neighboring countries. China, however, faces strong demand in its eastern regions and may need to source cost-effective renewable hydrogen from foreign countries rather than relying solely on domestic production.
For the energy industry, this research highlights the importance of regional cooperation and infrastructure development for hydrogen trade. It also underscores the need for countries to assess their renewable energy potentials and energy demand to determine their role in the future hydrogen market. The study provides a foundation for policymakers and energy companies to plan for a sustainable and efficient hydrogen economy.
Source: Brooks, V., Fragoso García, J., Zheng, L., Müller, V. P., Nolden, C., Möst, D., & Wietschel, M. (2023). Who will import hydrogen in 2050? Global assessment with China and US case studies. Applied Energy, 336, 120616.
This article is based on research available at arXiv.