In a comprehensive study published in the journal Nature Energy, researchers from Tsinghua University and the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences have provided an in-depth analysis of China’s electric vehicle (EV) market, offering valuable insights for the global energy sector.
The research team, led by Yanqiao Deng and including Minda Ma, Nan Zhou, Hong Yuan, Zhili Ma, and Xin Ma, utilized data from over 20 million EV registrations across 295 cities in China. They assessed the energy efficiency and carbon emissions of various EV models from 2022 to 2024 and projected future transition pathways up to 2035.
The study found that EVs are significantly more energy-efficient than internal combustion engine vehicles, consuming approximately 30.9 megajoules per 100 kilometers less energy. However, the carbon intensity of EVs varies widely across different provinces, ranging from 18.2 to 270.4 grams of CO2 per kilometer. This variation highlights the importance of regional considerations in energy and emissions planning.
Despite the rapid adoption of EVs, the researchers noted that gasoline still accounts for 44% of EV energy use, primarily due to the limited electrification of hybrid vehicles. This finding underscores the need for further advancements in battery technology and infrastructure to support full electrification.
The study also projected that emissions from EVs will peak around 2030 at 21.1 to 30.9 million tons of CO2. By 2035, emissions are expected to decline with the deployment of solid-state batteries and the implementation of stronger policies. These projections provide a valuable roadmap for policymakers and industry stakeholders to accelerate the decarbonization of the transport sector.
The research establishes an empirical foundation for accurate emission accounting and emphasizes the need to reduce regional disparities in energy efficiency and emissions. The insights gained from this study are globally relevant and can inform strategies to achieve deep decarbonization in the transport sector worldwide.
This article is based on research available at arXiv.