In the quest for a sustainable energy future, researchers Jun Wen Law, Bryan K. Mignone, and Dharik S. Mallapragada from the University of California, Berkeley, have delved into the complex world of liquid fuels and their role in decarbonization. Their study, published in the journal Applied Energy, offers a nuanced look at how different types of liquid fuels might fare in a deeply decarbonized energy system.
The research team used a multi-sector capacity expansion model of the contiguous United States to explore various scenarios for liquid fuel production. They examined how the shares of biofuels, synthetic fuels, and fossil liquid fuels change under different assumptions about resource constraints, fuel demand, and supply flexibility.
Biofuels emerged as a significant player in all scenarios, providing a substantial share of the liquid fuel supply. Synthetic fuels, on the other hand, only became viable when biomass or CO2 sequestration was assumed to be more limited. Fossil liquid fuels persisted in all scenarios, primarily driven by the extent to which their emissions could be offset with removals.
The study found that limiting biomass availability increases biogenic CO2 capture within biofuel pathways. Conversely, limiting CO2 sequestration availability increases the share of captured atmospheric (including biogenic) carbon directed toward synthetic fuel production. The researchers also noted that varying assumptions about liquid fuel demand distributions and fuel product supply flexibility alter competition among individual fuel production technologies. However, broader energy system outcomes remained robust to these assumptions.
The key takeaway from this research is that biomass and CO2 sequestration availability are crucial drivers of energy system outcomes in deeply decarbonized energy systems. This insight could guide policymakers and industry stakeholders in their efforts to transition towards a low-carbon economy. The practical applications for the energy sector are significant, particularly in the areas of biofuel and synthetic fuel production, as well as in the development of strategies for CO2 sequestration and emissions offsetting.
Source: Law, J. W., Mignone, B. K., & Mallapragada, D. S. (2023). Decarbonization pathways for liquid fuels: A multi-sector energy system perspective. Applied Energy, 335, 120550.
This article is based on research available at arXiv.