ABO Energy has revised its 2025 earnings forecast, marking a significant shift in the renewable energy landscape. The adjustment comes after a thorough reassessment of its project portfolio, prompted by evolving market conditions. The company’s management now anticipates a decline in award levels, a trend underscored by the oversubscription of feed-in tariff auctions. In August, project submissions totalled 5.7GW against a tendered volume of 3.5GW, leaving many projects without awards. External market analysts predict further acceleration of this trend, as seen in the November onshore wind auction.
This reassessment has led to a rescheduling of some projects and a downward adjustment of valuations to align with anticipated lower market levels. Despite these changes, ABO Energy asserts that its remaining project portfolio retains substantial value. The company’s project pipeline totals around 30GW, with ten gigawatts in Germany, providing a foundation for a swift return to profitability.
However, international markets are not expected to stabilize ABO Energy’s 2025 results. Negative impacts include an oversupply of solar in Spain, an oversupply of wind in Finland, changes to grid access regulations in Greece, and legislative changes affecting infrastructure sales in Hungary. These factors, combined with the domestic market adjustments, have led to a projected net loss of approximately €-95 million for 2025, a stark contrast to the previously anticipated surplus of €29–39 million.
Dr. Karsten Schlageter, a spokesperson for ABO Energy, emphasized the company’s commitment to adapting to these changed market conditions. “We will rigorously adapt our cost structures to the significantly changed market conditions at home and abroad and drive this forward with urgency and the support of a renowned consulting firm, which has now commenced its work. We are confident that we will report a positive result again in the next fiscal year,” Schlageter stated.
The company’s ability to navigate these challenges will be crucial in shaping the future of the renewable energy sector. ABO Energy’s experience highlights the complexities and uncertainties inherent in renewable energy markets, particularly in the face of rapid expansion and regulatory changes. The sector must grapple with these issues to ensure sustainable growth and profitability. ABO Energy’s proactive approach to restructuring and cost adaptation may serve as a model for other companies facing similar market dynamics.