The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) has released an analysis that could reshape the global energy transition narrative. If China maintains its current clean energy expansion, and India and Indonesia meet their declared clean energy goals, the power sector in these three major coal-dependent markets could see emissions start to decrease by 2030. This potential peak in coal power generation is a significant milestone in the global effort to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, as these three countries collectively consumed 73% of the global coal in 2024.
CREA co-founder and lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta warns that unchecked coal power expansion risks creating powerful vested interests that could delay the energy transition. “Rapid reduction in power sector emissions post coal peak would not only require maintaining pre-2030 renewable energy growth rate in all three countries but also ensuring power market and grid reforms,” Myllyvirta said. The total reduction in power sector CO₂ emissions could be equivalent to India’s total 2019 CO₂ emissions, compared to business as usual.
Over the past decade, these countries have driven global coal demand. However, the analysis suggests that a peak in coal power generation is imminent. CREA China analyst Qi Qin noted, “China has already added enough new clean electricity generation to cover all new demand growth, and power sector coal use and emissions have been falling since 2024 as a result.” While setbacks may occur, maintaining the current pace of clean energy growth is crucial.
In Indonesia, CREA analyst Katherine Hasan highlighted the potential of President Prabowo Subianto’s 100GW solar programme to peak coal power generation by 2030. However, she emphasized the need for a concrete roadmap to ensure clean energy dominates new capacity additions. “The real opportunity lies in translating this vision into a concrete delivery roadmap that positions clean energy to dominate new capacity additions,” Hasan said.
The analysis also underscores the importance of sustaining renewable energy growth post-2030. If this growth slows after reaching its peak, it could lead to missed opportunities in emissions reductions. CREA analyst Manoj Kumar noted that India’s target of 500GW of nonfossil power capacity could peak coal power before 2030. “The country has already crossed the 50% mark well ahead of its 2030 deadline, even as electricity demand continues to rise in line with rapid economic and population growth,” Kumar said. Strengthening grid flexibility, storage, and transmission will be key to sustaining this momentum.
This analysis challenges the energy sector to think critically about the trajectory of coal power and the role of renewable energy. It sparks debate about the need for robust policies, market reforms, and grid advancements to ensure a swift reduction in coal use and a sustained energy transition. The potential for a peak in coal power generation in these three major markets could catalyze global efforts to reduce emissions, but only if accompanied by sustained and accelerated clean energy growth.