In the heart of Europe’s energy transition, Poland is grappling with a complex balancing act: how to decarbonize while maintaining energy security and economic growth. A recent study published in the Annals of the Polish Association of Agricultural and Agribusiness Economists, led by Arkadiusz Weremczuk from the Warsaw University of Life Sciences (SGGW), sheds light on the pivotal role biomass could play in this delicate dance.
Weremczuk’s research, focusing on the period from 2019 to 2023 with projections up to 2026, reveals a nuanced picture of Poland’s renewable energy landscape. “Biomass has emerged as a key, dispatchable pillar on the heat side,” Weremczuk explains. His analysis shows that total heat output from biomass grew by roughly 40% during the study period, accounting for about 89% of renewable energy sources (RES) heat in 2023. This is a significant finding, given that the share of RES in primary energy supply rose from 19.4% to 24.5% over the same period.
The study, which utilized Statistics Poland (GUS) data and the SHARES methodology for gross final energy consumption (GFEC), also highlights an asymmetric transition across sectors. In 2023, GFEC shares were 25.7% in power, 20.3% in heating/cooling, and 6.0% in transport. While electricity generation from RES increased substantially, from 25.46 to 45.85 TWh, the growth in electricity from the “biomass family” was modest and stabilized. This suggests that, while biomass is crucial for heat, its role in power generation may have reached a plateau.
Looking ahead, Weremczuk’s trend extrapolation suggests near-stagnation in power generation from biomass but continued gains in heat through 2026. This has significant implications for the energy sector. To sustain and increase biomass’s contribution, robust supply chains and sustainability safeguards are essential. Moreover, investments in grid and storage infrastructure, along with a policy rebalancing from power alone toward district heating and biogas/biomethane, could unlock further potential.
The study also acknowledges the limitations of short time series and potential non-additivity across GFEC sectors under SHARES. Despite these caveats, the research provides valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and energy companies navigating Poland’s energy transition.
As Weremczuk puts it, “Sustaining and safely increasing biomass’s contribution requires a multi-faceted approach.” This research could shape future developments in the field, steering investments and policies towards a more balanced and secure energy future for Poland.