In the quest for industrial decarbonization, electrification emerges as a linchpin, according to a recent study published in the journal *Energy Conversion and Management: X*. The research, led by Markus Kaiser from the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and the University of Freiburg, offers a nuanced look at how Germany’s industrial sector can transition away from fossil fuels. The findings carry significant implications for energy providers, industrial operators, and policymakers alike.
The study explores two primary strategies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in industry: direct and indirect electrification. Direct electrification involves replacing fossil fuel-based processes with electric alternatives, while indirect electrification relies on converting electricity into synthetic fuels or hydrogen to power industrial processes. Kaiser and his team used a sector-coupled energy system model to simulate four different scenarios, each with varying degrees of favorability toward direct or indirect electrification.
One of the study’s key takeaways is that direct electrification remains crucial, even under optimistic assumptions for synthetic energy carriers. “Direct electrification is essential in all scenarios,” Kaiser emphasizes. By 2045, electricity could account for 47–52% of industrial final energy consumption, including non-energy uses. However, gaseous and liquid energy carriers will still play a significant role, making up 40–44% of the energy mix.
The research also highlights the need for substantial investments in renewable energy and power-to-X technologies. To meet the energy demands of a GHG-neutral industrial sector, the study suggests that 43–46% of domestic variable renewable energy and 51–63% of domestic power-to-X capacity will be required. Additionally, synthetic imports and biogenic supply will complement these domestic efforts.
The variation in electrification across different scenarios underscores the importance of flexible planning. “Trucks, cement production, and high-temperature process heat strongly depend on scenario assumptions and vary by more than 20%,” Kaiser notes. This variability indicates that energy uses in these areas will require adaptive strategies to accommodate different future scenarios. In contrast, sectors like crude steel production, chemicals production, and light-duty vehicles show less variability, suggesting more predictable pathways to decarbonization.
For the energy sector, these findings point to a future where electricity and synthetic fuels coexist, with a significant portion of energy needs met by renewable sources. Energy providers will need to ramp up investments in renewable energy infrastructure and power-to-X technologies to support industrial decarbonization. Industrial operators, on the other hand, will need to assess their energy use patterns and invest in technologies that align with the most plausible decarbonization pathways.
The study’s detailed modeling approach, which includes 16 different industrial processes and 17 process heat supplying technologies, offers a comprehensive view of the challenges and opportunities ahead. By providing a clear, data-driven perspective on industrial electrification, Kaiser’s research could shape future developments in energy policy, technology investment, and industrial strategy. As the world moves toward a low-carbon future, understanding the nuances of electrification will be critical for all stakeholders involved.