In the quest to balance grid stability with carbon reduction goals, Chinese researchers have developed a novel approach to optimize the dispatch of virtual power plants (VPPs) that include photovoltaic (PV) systems. This advancement, published in the journal *Energies*, could significantly enhance the commercial viability of VPPs in the coupled electricity–carbon market.
The study, led by Jiyun Yu of Nantong University’s School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, introduces a weighted probability distribution model for solar irradiance. This model leverages historical irradiance data to better characterize the inherent variability of PV output, a persistent challenge in VPP scheduling. “The key innovation here is our weighted solar irradiance probability model,” Yu explains. “It allows us to generate scenarios that more accurately reflect real-world PV output fluctuations, which is crucial for optimized dispatch.”
To ensure the practicality of their model, the researchers employed a rejection sampling technique to create solar irradiance scenarios consistent with their weighted probability distribution. They further refined the process using a confidence interval-based filtering mechanism to exclude extreme, improbable scenarios. This step is vital for maintaining statistical credibility and ensuring that the dispatch strategies are feasible in real-world conditions.
The proposed dispatch strategy was tested through numerical case studies, which demonstrated that the scenarios generated by the weighted solar irradiance probability model closely replicated historical PV characteristics. The confidence interval filter effectively excluded improbable extreme scenarios, leading to dispatch solutions that were more aligned with the optimal dispatch of historical irradiance data compared to conventional normal distribution-based methods.
The commercial implications of this research are substantial. By improving the accuracy of probabilistic modeling of PV output uncertainty, the proposed approach enhances the market revenue potential of VPPs. This is particularly relevant in China, where the dual-carbon strategic objectives—achieving peak carbon emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060—are driving the rapid expansion of renewable energy integration into the grid.
“This research is a significant step forward in the optimization of VPP operations,” says Yu. “It not only stabilizes grid operations but also maximizes the economic benefits for VPP operators, making renewable energy integration more attractive and commercially viable.”
The findings suggest that future developments in VPP technology could focus on integrating more sophisticated probabilistic models to handle the variability of renewable energy sources. As the energy sector continues to evolve, such advancements will be crucial in achieving a stable, low-carbon energy system. The study’s publication in *Energies* underscores its relevance to the broader scientific and industrial communities, offering a pathway to more efficient and economically viable renewable energy integration.