In the heart of Bulgaria, a study is shedding new light on how accurately we can predict the performance of solar power plants. Mincho Velkov, a researcher from the Technical University of Sofia Branch Plovdiv, has conducted a comparative analysis that could reshape how the energy sector approaches photovoltaic (PV) power plant design. His work, published in the journal *Engineering Proceedings*, offers a critical look at the reliability of simulation software in predicting real-world solar power plant performance.
Velkov’s study pitted the simulated results from PVSol Expert, a widely used software for designing PV power plants, against real-world data from a functioning solar power plant in Plovdiv, Bulgaria. The goal was straightforward: to evaluate how well simulation tools can predict actual system performance under real-world conditions.
“The accuracy of these simulations is crucial for investors, engineers, and policymakers,” Velkov explained. “If we can’t trust the models, we risk misallocating resources, overestimating or underestimating energy production, and ultimately, hindering the growth of solar energy.”
The study compared a range of factors, including generated electricity, solar irradiance levels, ambient temperature, and system losses. By using identical input parameters for both the simulation and the real-world plant—such as module orientation, tilt, number and type of panels, inverter specifications, and electrical configuration—Velkov aimed to create a robust comparison.
The findings are promising. The simulation results closely mirrored the real-world data, suggesting that tools like PVSol Expert can be reliable for design verification and performance forecasting. However, the study also highlighted areas where simulations may fall short, particularly in accounting for unpredictable variables like sudden weather changes or system inefficiencies.
“This research is a step towards bridging the gap between theoretical models and practical applications,” Velkov noted. “It’s about ensuring that the solar power plants we design today meet the energy demands of tomorrow.”
The implications for the energy sector are significant. Accurate simulations can lead to more efficient and cost-effective PV power plant designs, reducing the risks associated with large-scale solar investments. As the world increasingly turns to renewable energy sources, the ability to predict performance with high accuracy becomes ever more critical.
Velkov’s work, published in *Engineering Proceedings*, is a testament to the ongoing efforts to refine and validate the tools that drive the solar energy industry forward. As the field continues to evolve, studies like this will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of photovoltaic technology, ensuring that the transition to renewable energy is both efficient and reliable.