In a significant stride towards decarbonizing Southeast Asia’s power grids, researchers have outlined two potential pathways for the Philippines to achieve net-zero emissions by 2054. The study, led by Gul Hameed of the University of Surrey’s School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, was recently published in the journal “Energy Strategy Reviews” (translated from “Energy Strategy Reviews”).
The Philippines, a major economy in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has yet to set a net-zero emissions target, despite the region’s rapid economic growth and industrialization driving up energy demand. Hameed and his team used a sophisticated optimization framework to compare two scenarios for the Luzon power grid: one without carbon capture and storage (CCS) retrofits in fossil plants (NZES-I), and another with CCS integration (NZES-II).
Both scenarios incorporate renewables, alternative fuels, negative emission technologies (NETs), and a multi-stage carbon trading mechanism. The results reveal that NZES-II, which includes CCS, achieves lower electricity prices and better aligns with national renewable energy targets. “By 2050–2054, carbon trading revenues exceed $40 billion per year in NZES-II, surpassing the investment required for renewables and emission reduction technologies,” Hameed explained.
In contrast, NZES-I reaches net-zero emissions but falls short on renewable targets and incurs higher electricity prices due to its greater dependence on costly NETs. The study underscores the critical role of integrated carbon trading, CCS, and policy alignment in achieving net-zero emissions.
The findings have significant implications for the energy sector, particularly in developing economies with growing energy demands. The study provides a policy-informed roadmap for the Philippines and similar economies to achieve net-zero while ensuring economic resilience and energy security under realistic constraints.
“This research highlights the importance of strategic planning and integrated policy instruments in transitioning to a low-carbon future,” Hameed said. “It offers a practical approach for other ASEAN countries and beyond to navigate the complex landscape of energy decarbonization.”
As the world grapples with the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, this study serves as a beacon of hope, demonstrating that a net-zero future is achievable with the right combination of technologies, policies, and economic instruments. The insights gained from this research could shape future developments in the field, paving the way for a more sustainable and resilient energy sector.