In the quest for a greener, more efficient energy landscape, researchers are constantly seeking ways to evaluate and optimize the benefits of electric energy substitution in regional power grids. A recent study published in *Power Technology*, led by ZHENG Yang of the Zhenjiang Power Supply Branch, State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Company Limited, offers a novel approach to this challenge. The research introduces a dynamic evaluation method that promises to enhance the decision-making accuracy of electric energy substitution projects, a critical component in the transition to low-carbon energy systems.
The study addresses several key issues that have plagued traditional evaluation methods, including insufficient multi-dimensional coordination, incomplete quantification of environmental benefits, and the lack of dynamic feedback. “Our goal was to create a more holistic and accurate framework for evaluating the comprehensive benefits of electric energy substitution,” explains ZHENG Yang. “This involves not just looking at the immediate impacts but also considering the long-term environmental and economic benefits.”
To achieve this, the researchers established a three-dimensional evaluation index system that covers “supply-side optimization, demand-side transformation, and environmental emission reduction synergy.” This system identifies 21 indicators, including cross-regional consumption capacity, electric substitution penetration rate, and pollutant reduction, forming a multi-level quantitative evaluation framework. The team also developed a coupling weighting strategy based on the entropy weight method and an improved rank correlation method to balance subjective and objective weight deviations through linear weighting.
One of the most innovative aspects of the study is the proposal of a Bayesian dynamic cloud model. This model optimizes the hyper-entropy parameters of the cloud model by incorporating a Bayesian feedback mechanism, allowing for dynamic correction of evaluation results. “This dynamic feedback mechanism is crucial,” notes ZHENG Yang. “It ensures that our evaluations are not static but adapt and improve over time, aligning more closely with practical engineering needs.”
The implications of this research for the energy sector are significant. By providing a more accurate and comprehensive evaluation of the benefits of electric energy substitution, the method can help energy companies make more informed decisions. This, in turn, can accelerate the transition to low-carbon energy systems, a critical step in achieving carbon neutrality goals.
The study’s findings are particularly relevant in the context of regional power grids, where the efficient use of electric energy substitution can have a substantial impact on both environmental and economic outcomes. The dynamic evaluation method proposed by ZHENG Yang and his team offers a powerful tool for achieving these goals, providing a more nuanced and accurate picture of the benefits of electric energy substitution.
As the energy sector continues to evolve, the need for sophisticated evaluation methods will only grow. The research published in *Power Technology* represents a significant step forward in this regard, offering a framework that can be adapted and applied in various contexts. By enhancing the accuracy and comprehensiveness of benefit evaluations, this method can help pave the way for a more sustainable and efficient energy future.