The UK’s ambitious offshore wind targets are facing significant headwinds, with industry experts warning that the country may fall short of its 2030 goals. The Energy Industries Council’s (EIC) latest report reveals that while the UK boasts the world’s largest pipeline of offshore wind projects, only 43 GW of the targeted 55 GW is realistically achievable by the end of the decade. This shortfall threatens the UK’s position as a global clean energy leader and raises questions about its net-zero commitments.
At the heart of the issue are critical infrastructure bottlenecks. The EIC report highlights that only five of the around 80 specialist offshore installation vessels in Europe can handle the next generation of 14–15 MW turbines. This limited capacity is driving up costs and causing delays as UK projects compete with continental neighbours for access to these vessels. Ports present another major challenge, with upgrades typically taking six to ten years to come online—a timeline that clashes with the UK’s project deadlines.
“The future Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction rounds will be too late to bridge the gap,” the report cautions. Allocation Round 8, scheduled for 2026, falls outside the 2030 delivery window, and even the upcoming AR7 round, with results expected in 2025–26, cannot accelerate progress fast enough without parallel investment in ports, grid connections, and supply chains.
Adding to the pressure, the UK’s offshore wind sector must also contend with the looming decommissioning of early-generation projects. Several sites, including RWE’s Scroby Sands wind farm and the larger London Array, are due for retirement from the late 2020s onwards. These decommissioning projects will compete with new developments for the same limited pool of vessels, ports, and financing, potentially creating a double squeeze on the UK’s offshore wind infrastructure.
The UK’s challenges are not unique. Across Europe, 411 GW of offshore wind projects are in the pipeline, but 84% remain in planning or feasibility stages, meaning most new gigawatts will not materialise until after 2030. Germany, for instance, is unlikely to hit its 30-GW 2030 target, with only 21.6 GW expected to be delivered. Meanwhile, France and Norway are pushing ahead with floating wind, with France awarding the world’s first subsidy for a commercial-scale floating project in 2024.
To address these constraints, the European Union has launched several policy measures, including the Wind Power Package, Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA), and Clean Industrial Deal. These initiatives aim to speed up permitting, reform auctions, and expand finance. Under the NZIA, at least 30% of auctioned capacity must now be awarded on non-price criteria, such as sustainability, supply chain resilience, and job creation. The European Investment Bank (EIB) is backing these efforts with €6.5bn in guarantees for wind manufacturers and €250m for mid-sized green manufacturers. Major port upgrades are already planned in Esbjerg, Cuxhaven, Cork, and Bilbao to relieve bottlenecks.
Beyond Europe, global competition adds another layer of pressure. Chinese manufacturers now produce offshore turbines at a scale four times larger than Europe’s capacity—82 GW annually compared to 20 GW. With companies such as Mingyang moving into Europe, including a plan to manufacture 18.8 MW turbines in Italy, the report warns of a repeat of the solar industry’s trajectory, where Europe became almost entirely dependent on Chinese imports.
Despite these challenges, the UK remains Europe’s offshore wind leader, with 15.6 GW of operational capacity—well ahead of Germany’s 9 GW and the Netherlands’ 5.5 GW. However, the EIC warns that without urgent action to expand port capacity, secure supply chains, and align auction schedules with project timelines, Britain risks losing momentum. The report concludes that without coordinated investment and political will, the UK could miss its 2030 offshore wind ambitions—undermining its climate goals and its position as a world leader in renewable energy.
This news underscores the need for strategic planning and investment in the UK’s offshore wind sector. The sector’s future will likely hinge on the government’s ability to address infrastructure bottlenecks, streamline permitting processes, and foster domestic supply chain resilience. Failure to do so could not only jeopardise the UK’s clean energy targets but also its competitiveness in the global renewable energy market.