The UK’s ambitious offshore wind targets are facing significant headwinds, with a new industry report warning that the country is unlikely to meet its 2030 goal of 55 gigawatts (GW) of capacity. The Energy Industries Council (EIC) UK & Europe Offshore Wind report reveals that only 43 GW is realistically achievable within the decade, threatening the UK’s position as a global clean energy leader and casting doubt on its net-zero ambitions.
At the heart of the challenge is infrastructure. The UK’s offshore wind projects are competing with continental neighbours for a limited pool of specialist vessels and port facilities. Out of around 80 specialist offshore installation vessels in Europe, just five are capable of handling the next generation of 14–15 MW turbines. Port upgrades, which typically take six to ten years to move from permitting to full operation, are also a major stumbling block. The EIC stresses that future Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction rounds – the government’s main subsidy scheme for low-carbon power – will be too late to bridge the gap. Allocation Round 8, scheduled for 2026, will fall outside the 2030 delivery window, and even the upcoming AR7 round, with results expected in 2025–26, cannot accelerate progress fast enough without parallel investment in ports, grid connections and supply chains.
The looming decommissioning wave adds further pressure. Several early-generation projects are due for decommissioning from the late 2020s onwards, competing with new developments for the same limited pool of vessels, ports, and financing. This double squeeze on the UK’s offshore wind infrastructure could further delay progress.
The UK’s difficulties are part of a wider European picture. Across the continent, there is an offshore wind pipeline of 411 GW spanning 386 projects – with floating wind accounting for 37% of future capacity. Yet 84% of these projects remain in planning or feasibility stages, meaning most new gigawatts will not materialise until after 2030. Germany, for instance, has 31.1 GW in development but is unlikely to hit its 30-GW 2030 target, with only 21.6 GW expected to be delivered. Auction reforms and ‘negative bidding’ strategies have created price pressures that risk slowing progress further. France and Norway, by contrast, are pushing ahead with floating wind, with France awarding the world’s first subsidy for a commercial-scale floating project in 2024.
To address these constraints, the European Union has launched several policy measures. The Wind Power Package, Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA), and Clean Industrial Deal aim to speed up permitting, reform auctions, and expand finance. Under the NZIA, at least 30% of auctioned capacity must now be awarded on non-price criteria, such as sustainability, supply chain resilience, and job creation. The European Investment Bank (EIB) is backing these efforts with €6.5bn in guarantees for wind manufacturers and €250m for mid-sized green manufacturers. Major port upgrades are already planned in Esbjerg, Cuxhaven, Cork, and Bilbao to relieve bottlenecks.
Beyond Europe, global competition adds another layer of pressure. Chinese manufacturers now produce offshore turbines at a scale four times larger than Europe’s capacity – 82 GW annually compared to 20 GW. With companies such as Mingyang moving into Europe, including a plan to manufacture 18.8 MW turbines in Italy, the report warns of a repeat of the solar industry’s trajectory, where Europe became almost entirely dependent on Chinese imports.
Despite these challenges, the UK remains Europe’s offshore wind leader, with 15.6 GW of operational capacity – well ahead of Germany’s 9 GW and the Netherlands’ 5.5 GW. Europe as a whole accounts for 43% of global offshore wind capacity, excluding China, with 2.7 GW added last year. But the EIC warns that unless urgent action is taken to expand port capacity, secure supply chains, and align auction schedules with project timelines, Britain risks losing momentum. The report concludes that without coordinated investment and political will, the UK could miss its 2030 offshore wind ambitions – undermining its climate goals and its position as a world leader in renewable energy.
This news could shape the development of the sector in several ways. Firstly, it highlights the urgent need for investment in infrastructure, particularly ports and vessels, to support the expansion of offshore wind capacity. Secondly, it underscores the importance of aligning policy measures, such as CfD auction rounds, with project timelines to ensure that financial incentives are available when needed. Thirdly, it draws attention to the global competition in the offshore wind sector, particularly from