In the pursuit of climate neutrality, Germany is exploring innovative strategies to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and a recent study published in the journal Global Change Biology: Bioenergy offers a compelling roadmap. Led by Ronja Wollnik of the German Biomass Research Centre (DBFZ) in Leipzig, the research delves into the potential of bio-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) solutions, providing valuable insights for the energy sector and policymakers alike.
The study focuses on the indispensable role of CDR in achieving Germany’s climate neutrality target, complementing efforts to reduce and avoid greenhouse gas emissions. By leveraging biomass in various ways, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), enhancing natural sinks, and utilizing biomass-based construction materials, Germany can streamline actions to achieve both CDR and a range of co-benefits, including ecosystem services.
Wollnik and her team developed scenarios that explore the diverse factors driving the ramp-up of bio-based CDR in Germany. Using the PESTEL approach—Policy, Environmental, Social, Technological, Economic, and Legal aspects—they added a Biomass category to identify key drivers. Desirable net-zero futures and drivers identified in stakeholder surveys, interviews, and workshops were translated into consistent scenario storylines.
The scenarios encompass four distinct narratives:
1. **Cost Efficiency**: This scenario focuses on maximizing the cost-effectiveness of bio-based CDR solutions.
2. **Decentralized Options and Natural Sinks**: Prioritizing decentralized options and enhancing natural sinks.
3. **Skyrocketing**: Envisaging larger amounts of bio-based CDR.
4. **Roadblock**: Considering a scenario with little support for bio-based CDR.
“These scenario storylines and drivers can inform modeling for cost-optimized implementation and paint a picture of potential developments for stakeholders,” Wollnik explained. “They can also serve as a basis for compiling bio-based value chains with maximum removal capacities that deliver a series of additional system benefits.”
The research highlights the potential commercial impacts for the energy sector, as the scenarios provide a framework for understanding the various pathways to achieving negative emissions. By exploring different implementation levels of single concepts and their overall contribution to negative emissions for Germany in 2045, the study offers valuable insights for energy companies, policymakers, and investors.
“Understanding the regional perspectives and potential for bio-based CDR is crucial for the energy sector,” Wollnik noted. “This research provides a comprehensive overview of the opportunities and challenges, helping to shape future developments in the field.”
The study’s findings are particularly relevant for the energy sector, as they provide a roadmap for integrating bio-based CDR solutions into existing and future energy systems. By considering the national potentials for different CDR options, the scenarios offer a realistic assessment of the contributions that bio-based CDR can make to Germany’s climate neutrality target.
As Germany and other nations strive to achieve climate neutrality, the insights from this research will be invaluable. By exploring the diverse factors driving the ramp-up of bio-based CDR and developing consistent scenario storylines, Wollnik and her team have provided a crucial tool for stakeholders in the energy sector and beyond. The study, published in Global Change Biology: Bioenergy, offers a thoughtful and engaging exploration of the potential pathways to achieving negative emissions, shaping the future of the energy sector and contributing to a more sustainable future.