In the heart of Asia, Taiwan is charting an ambitious course towards a net-zero future, and new research is illuminating the path. A study published in the journal *Engineering Results* offers a roadmap for Taiwan to meet its legally mandated net-zero target by 2050, with significant implications for the global energy sector.
The research, led by Mohamed Shaaban from the Department of Electrical Engineering at National Chung Cheng University, focuses on the intricate balancing act of scaling up renewable energy and long-duration storage within the constraints of Taiwan’s densely populated island grid. “Achieving net-zero in a high-density island system like Taiwan is a complex puzzle,” Shaaban explains. “Our study aims to provide a data-driven approach to solve it.”
The study presents an integrated model that co-optimises generation, storage, and transmission across six regional zones from 2025 to 2050. By coupling technology-specific cost trajectories with carbon-pricing pathways, the research quantifies the least-cost portfolios capable of meeting reliability and emissions constraints.
The findings are promising. Offshore wind and rooftop PV could supply 73% of electricity by 2035 and 88% by 2050, supported by 9 GW of pumped-hydro and 24 GWh of lithium-ion storage. This transition could reduce power-sector CO₂ emissions by 98% relative to 2025. “The key is strategic planning and investment in the right technologies,” Shaaban notes.
The research also highlights the critical role of Taiwan’s mountainous pumped-hydro reservoirs in providing seasonal balancing, a factor that could influence other high-density coastal systems worldwide. Moreover, the study suggests that hydrogen storage could become competitive if electrolyser costs fall below $300 kW⁻¹ or carbon prices exceed $150 tCO₂⁻¹.
For the energy sector, these findings underscore the importance of policy implications such as phasing out coal by 2040, streamlining offshore wind permitting, and prioritising hybrid battery-hydrogen storage hubs near load centres. The system-level levelised cost of electricity is projected to rise modestly from $110 to $124 MWh⁻¹ by 2050, less than half the cost of unabated fossil backup, with a loss-of-load probability remaining below 0.05%.
As the world grapples with the transition to renewable energy, Taiwan’s journey offers valuable insights. The study’s integrated approach and scenario analysis could serve as a blueprint for other regions facing similar challenges. “This research is not just about Taiwan; it’s about providing a model for high-density systems globally,” Shaaban concludes.
In an era where the stakes are high and the timelines are tight, such research is invaluable. It provides a beacon of hope and a roadmap for action, guiding the energy sector towards a sustainable and net-zero future.