Transgrid’s Transmission Annual Planning Report (TAPR) for 2025 has laid bare the dramatic shifts underway in New South Wales’ (NSW) energy landscape, marking the end of the ‘ramp up’ phase of the state’s energy transition and the beginning of a ‘deep transition’ phase. This period is characterized by the rapid closure of coal generators and an accelerated buildout of renewable generation, storage, and transmission infrastructure.
The report reveals a five-fold growth in wind and solar generation over the past decade, with coal generation now accounting for around 60% of the energy mix. Transgrid CEO Brett Redman emphasized the dynamic nature of this new phase, forecasting NSW’s transition from the current threshold of about 40% renewable energy to around 90% by 2035.
The TAPR 2025 outlines the new transmission projects that will underpin this transformation, including EnergyConnect, HumeLink, the Hunter Transmission Project, and QNI Connect. These projects, along with network augmentation initiatives and collaborative efforts with EnergyCo and local electricity networks, will form the backbone of the future grid.
The report also highlights record growth in generator connections, with Transgrid supporting over 10GW of new renewable energy and storage projects. Redman noted a surge in connection interest from battery energy storage systems (BESS), with more than 3GW achieving or progressing towards commissioning since 2024.
The proliferation of data centres and increasing industrial loads are driving up peak demand, while minimum demand is declining faster than previously projected. In response, Transgrid’s report includes multi-decade plans for augmenting supply corridors to bring more renewable energy to Greater Sydney, aiming to power the city’s growing, electrified economy sustainably.
The TAPR 2025 forecasts significant developments for the next two years, including a 44% slump in minimum demand in NSW and zero minimum demand by the early 2030s. It also predicts an 8GW increase in rooftop solar capacity in NSW and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) by 2035, 5,200GWh of electric vehicle charging, and at least an 800MW increase in data centre load.
In the past 12 months alone, 4,115MW of additional renewable generation and energy storage have committed to joining the network. The report underscores the importance of major infrastructure projects in linking Renewable Energy Zones (REZs) within NSW and the National Electricity Market with Greater Sydney, ensuring a secure power supply while facilitating the region’s transition to cleaner energy.
This news shapes the development of the sector by highlighting the critical role of transmission infrastructure in enabling the energy transition. It underscores the need for strategic planning and investment in grid augmentation to accommodate the rapid growth of renewable energy and storage projects. Moreover, it signals a shift in demand patterns, with peak demand increasing due to industrial loads and minimum demand declining due to distributed energy resources. This dynamic requires a flexible and responsive grid capable of integrating and managing diverse energy sources and loads. The report also emphasizes the importance of collaboration between transmission network operators, renewable energy developers, and other stakeholders to ensure a secure and sustainable energy future for NSW.