Northland Power has revised its 2025 financial guidance, citing below-average wind conditions and market dynamics that have dampened its offshore wind fleet’s performance. The Canadian developer now anticipates adjusted EBITDA to range between C$1.2 billion and C$1.3 billion, a reduction from its previous forecast of C$1.3 billion to C$1.4 billion. Similarly, free cash flow per share is expected to be between C$1.15 and C$1.35, down from the earlier projection of C$1.30 to C$1.50.
The revised outlook reflects a decline in production across all offshore wind facilities, exacerbated by higher unpaid curtailments at German sites due to negative power prices. These challenges were partially offset by a favourable German tax ruling. In the second quarter, group revenue decreased to C$509 million from C$529 million a year earlier, with adjusted EBITDA down 9% to C$245 million and free cash flow per share at C$0.22 from C$0.27. The company reported a net loss of C$53 million, contrasting with a C$262 million profit in the same period last year.
Offshore wind adjusted EBITDA dropped 17% to C$108 million, coinciding with a 19% fall in generation to 1,825GWh on Northland’s share. Meanwhile, onshore renewables and energy storage rose 11% to C$87 million, driven by the contribution from the Oneida battery project and stronger North American wind performance. Natural gas earnings fell 15% to C$42 million due to planned outages, while the utility segment remained broadly flat at C$40 million.
President and chief executive Christine Healy emphasized the company’s resilience, stating, “While our overall performance was impacted by below-average wind levels in Europe during the quarter, we continued to demonstrate strong operational performance with 95% commercial availability.” She highlighted the company’s progress on major projects, including the Hai Long project in Taiwan, which achieved first power during the quarter. All foundation piles have been installed, and turbine and cable installation is underway, keeping the 1GW project on track for completion in 2027.
In Poland, the 1.1GW Baltic Power scheme began turbine installation alongside onshore substation works and fabrication of key components, with commissioning set for the second half of 2026. Northland also completed the 250MW/1GWh Oneida battery in Canada ahead of schedule and under budget, securing a 20-year capacity contract.
The company’s ability to deliver on major projects despite operational challenges underscores its strategic focus on growth and innovation. However, the revised guidance serves as a reminder of the sector’s vulnerability to external factors such as weather conditions and market dynamics. This news may prompt industry stakeholders to reassess risk management strategies and explore ways to enhance the resilience of offshore wind projects. The focus on onshore renewables and energy storage highlights a potential shift in strategy, reflecting the need for diversification in the face of unpredictable market conditions.