In a groundbreaking study published in the journal *Resources Science*, researchers from Hebei University and the Qingzhou Social and Economic Census Center have shed light on the intricate relationship between China’s “dual carbon” goals and the demand for critical minerals in new energy vehicles (NEVs). The study, led by ZHENG Linchang and his team, offers a multi-scenario dynamic analysis that could significantly impact the energy sector’s strategic planning and commercial investments.
The “dual carbon” goals, aiming for peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, are set to revolutionize the transportation sector. This transformation is expected to alter the consumption demand for critical minerals in NEVs, a factor that ZHENG Linchang emphasizes as crucial for future planning. “The implementation of these goals will significantly affect the scale and performance of new energy vehicles, thereby changing the consumption demand for critical minerals,” he notes.
Using the Gompertz model, the researchers predicted the sales of NEVs and calculated related parameters to estimate the consumption demand for critical minerals from 2022 to 2035. The study considered different “dual carbon” policy scenarios and lithium battery technology pathways, providing a comprehensive outlook on the future demand for minerals like lithium, nickel, cobalt, neodymium, dysprosium, and praseodymium.
The findings reveal that the per-vehicle consumption of critical minerals varies across different types of NEVs, with lithium consumption increasing in passenger battery electric vehicles and special-purpose battery electric vehicles. Under the benchmark policy scenario, the annual growth rates of consumption demand for these minerals are projected to be substantial, with lithium seeing the highest growth rate of 15.97%~16.10%.
One of the most compelling insights from the study is the identification of new vehicle production as the main contributor to the consumption demand for critical minerals in NEVs. However, this contribution is expected to decline over time, with passenger battery electric vehicles remaining the primary driver of demand. The study also highlights the increasing role of battery swapping in the future.
The research underscores the need for strategic planning to mitigate supply-demand tensions, particularly for lithium, cobalt, and nickel. ZHENG Linchang suggests promoting green consumption of NEVs, advancing the development of a circular economy, optimizing the global layout of industrial and supply chains, and strengthening technological research and development.
This study, published in *Resources Science*, provides a critical roadmap for the energy sector, offering insights that could shape future developments in NEV technology and mineral resource management. As the world moves towards a greener future, the findings of this research will be invaluable for policymakers, investors, and industry leaders navigating the complexities of the energy transition.