In the race to mitigate climate change, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has long been hailed as a crucial technology. But how quickly can we realistically deploy it, and what are the commercial implications for the energy sector? A groundbreaking study published by Jay Fuhrman, a researcher at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, sheds new light on these questions.
The research, published in Environmental Research Letters, challenges the optimistic projections often seen in climate models. These models frequently assume rapid, large-scale deployment of CCS, but Fuhrman’s work suggests that these expectations may be overly ambitious. “We’ve often seen scenarios that project near-term CCS deployments far beyond what’s currently planned or operational,” Fuhrman explains. “These scenarios haven’t always considered regional differences in capacity to deploy large-scale CO2 capture, transport, and subsurface injection.”
Fuhrman and his team updated a leading integrated energy-economy-land model, recalibrating maximum deployments to publicly announced CCS projects through to 2030. They also quantified future scaling and maximum injection rates for the overall CCS value chain, evaluating the implications for emissions trajectories, energy mix, and mitigation costs.
The findings are striking. Under limited CCS growth rates, deployment at mid-century and by 2100 could be reduced by a factor of seven compared to a scenario that doesn’t consider injectivity or growth rate limits. This could significantly impact the energy sector, with potential delays in decarbonization efforts and increased reliance on other mitigation strategies.
However, the study also highlights the potential benefits of rapid CCS scaling. Sustained efforts to quickly scale up CCS could reduce transition costs by nearly $11 trillion globally, with significant cost reductions in regions like China and India. “Delayed mitigation combined with slower-than-expected CCS deployment could result in large and prolonged temperature overshoot,” Fuhrman warns. “Conversely, aggressive emissions cuts in anticipation of slow CCS scaling that subsequently far exceeds expectations could lead to lower peak and long-term temperatures.”
The research underscores the need for a more nuanced understanding of CCS deployment. It’s not just about the technology; it’s also about the regional capacity to implement it. This could shape future developments in the field, encouraging more realistic planning and investment in CCS projects.
For the energy sector, the implications are clear. Companies need to consider not just the potential of CCS, but also the practicalities of deployment. This could influence investment decisions, policy advocacy, and strategic planning. As Fuhrman puts it, “It’s about finding a balance between ambition and realism, between the potential of CCS and the practicalities of deployment.”
The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, which translates to ‘Letters on Environmental Research’, serves as a wake-up call for the energy sector. It’s a reminder that while CCS has immense potential, its deployment is not without challenges. And as the world races to mitigate climate change, understanding these challenges is more important than ever.