In the heart of Poland, a team of researchers led by Aurelia Rybak from the Faculty of Mining, Safety Engineering and Industrial Automation at the Silesian University of Technology is pioneering a new approach to energy transformation. Their work, published in the journal Energies, delves into the crucial role of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in Poland’s energy future, offering insights that could reshape the European energy landscape.
Poland, with its heavy reliance on coal, faces a unique challenge in transitioning to a low-carbon economy. The country’s energy mix is dominated by coal, which supplies about 60% of its electricity. This dependence makes Poland’s energy transformation particularly complex, but also presents an opportunity for innovative solutions.
Rybak and her team have developed a sophisticated model that considers both measurable variables, such as CO2 emissions and EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) prices, and qualitative factors like the political environment. “Stable political conditions and predictable legal regulations will be crucial for the application of CCS in the Polish energy sector,” Rybak emphasizes. This model allows for the construction of three scenarios—optimistic, pessimistic, and neutral—each describing alternative visions for the future development of CCS under different conditions.
The use of fuzzy sets in their model is a significant innovation. Fuzzy sets help eliminate the subjectivity often associated with expert knowledge, providing a more objective basis for planning. “The model allows us to build surface charts that graphically present the relationships between these factors and enable easy identification of the importance of CCS under specific conditions,” Rybak explains. This visual representation is invaluable for stakeholders, allowing them to observe potential developments under known conditions and understand the dependence of CCS importance on the changing environment.
The scenarios developed by Rybak’s team indicate that CCS could play a pivotal role in Poland’s energy transformation. Under a neutral scenario, CCS can be important at specific price points and CO2 emission thresholds, serving as one of many decarbonization solutions. In a pessimistic scenario, its importance is lower, but it could still be a viable solution in specific conditions where other technologies are not feasible. The optimistic scenario highlights CCS as a key technology for reducing CO2 emissions, aligning with EU regulations and directives.
The implications of this research are far-reaching. For the energy sector, it provides a roadmap for integrating CCS into existing energy systems, particularly in countries with a heavy reliance on coal. The model’s ability to combine qualitative and quantitative variables makes it a powerful tool for decision-makers, enabling them to respond quickly and make optimal decisions in turbulent environments.
As the European Union continues to push for climate neutrality by 2050, countries like Poland will need to adapt their energy strategies. Rybak’s research offers a blueprint for how CCS can be a bridge to a fully stable energy system based on renewable sources. “The scenarios will enable a quick response and accurate decisions under various conditions of the turbulent environment,” Rybak notes. This will be crucial as the EU re-evaluates its energy strategy in light of recent geopolitical events, ensuring both energy and military security.
The research, published in Energies, underscores the importance of CCS in the energy transition. As the EU moves towards a zero-emission economy, technologies like CCS will be essential. Rybak’s work provides a clear path forward, showing how CCS can be integrated into Poland’s energy mix and adapted to the unique conditions of the country. For the energy sector, this research offers a glimpse into the future, where CCS plays a central role in achieving climate goals and ensuring energy security. The scenarios developed by Rybak’s team will be invaluable for stakeholders, helping them navigate the complexities of energy transformation and make informed decisions. As the EU continues to evolve its energy policies, the insights from this research will be crucial in shaping a sustainable and secure energy future.