The U.S. coal industry is at a crossroads, and recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) paints a stark picture of its decline. Despite President Trump’s executive orders aimed at boosting coal production and coal-fired power generation, the sector continues to shrink. The EIA reported that U.S. coal production in 2023 was 578 million short tons, less than half of what it was in 2008. This trend is expected to continue, with the EIA forecasting further declines to 483 million short tons in 2025 and 467 million short tons in 2026. The decline is spread across all types of coal—anthracite, bituminous, subbituminous, and lignite—and is driven by a combination of environmental regulations and economic factors.
Energy analysts point to the increasing competitiveness of natural gas and renewable energy sources as the primary drivers of coal’s decline. Gilbert Michaud, a professor at Loyola University in Chicago, noted, “Over the last 15-plus years, coal production in the U.S. has steadily lost ground to natural gas, solar, and wind, all of which are now cheaper forms of energy production.” Michaud emphasized that while regulations have played a role, the market has largely driven the shift away from coal. “Coal is now less economic than other forms of energy, and it also faces public scrutiny as corporate and governmental demand for clean energy continues to rise,” he said. This market-driven trend poses significant challenges for any efforts to revive the coal industry, suggesting that policy alone may not be enough to reverse the decline.
The EIA’s data also highlights the shrinking role of coal in the U.S. electricity generation mix. As of November 2024, coal accounted for just 16% of total U.S. electricity generation capacity and 15% of the electricity supply, lagging behind natural gas (more than 40%), renewable energy (24%), and nuclear power (19%). Nearly 300 coal-fired power stations closed between 2010 and 2019, and the trend continues with plans to retire more plants in the coming years. Michelle Bloodworth, CEO of America’s Power, a coal industry organization, argued that coal-fired power generation is crucial for grid reliability, especially as demand for power increases due to technological advances. However, this perspective is not universally shared. David Naylor, president and CEO at Rayburn Electric Cooperative, advocated for an “all of the above” approach to power generation, recognizing the role of coal but also emphasizing the importance of natural gas, renewable energy, and emerging technologies.
The debate over coal’s future is far from settled, but the data and expert opinions point to a clear trend: coal is losing ground to more economical and environmentally friendly energy sources. The EIA’s forecast of continued declines in coal production, coupled with the planned retirements of coal-fired power plants, suggests that the industry faces an uphill battle. As Allan Schurr, chief commercial officer at Enchanted Rock, put it, “The continued decline in coal-fired power generation reflects a clear long-term shift towards more flexible, lower-emission and cost-effective solutions.” This shift is not just about economics; it’s also about sustainability and public demand for cleaner energy. The coal industry will need to adapt to these changing dynamics if it hopes to remain relevant in the evolving energy landscape. The executive orders signed by President Trump may provide some short-term relief, but they are unlikely to reverse the long-term trends driving the decline of coal. The future of energy in the U.S. is increasingly looking like a diverse mix of sources, with coal playing a diminishing role.
