In the heart of Beijing, researchers at the University of Science and Technology Beijing are charting a course for one of China’s most critical industries: steel. Led by Zhifeng Cui from the School of Metallurgy and Ecological Engineering, a groundbreaking study published in the Journal of Engineering Sciences explores the future of China’s iron and steel sector under the nation’s ambitious “dual carbon” goals—peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. The findings offer a roadmap for the industry’s low-carbon transformation, with significant implications for the energy sector.
The iron and steel industry is a behemoth, both in terms of its economic impact and its carbon footprint. It’s a sector that has long been synonymous with heavy industry and high emissions. But as China pushes towards a greener future, the steel industry is facing a seismic shift. Cui’s research constructs a forecast model that paints a clear picture of what this shift might look like.
By 2060, the model predicts that crude steel production will fall to between 600 and 700 million tons, a significant decrease from current levels. This reduction is not just about cutting back, but also about smart optimization. “The steel industry will trend toward reduced development, but this is not a sign of decline,” Cui explains. “It’s about becoming more efficient, more sustainable.”
One of the key drivers of this change will be the increasing use of scrap steel. As society’s stock of steel grows, so too will the availability of scrap. By 2045, scrap steel output is expected to peak at around 500-600 million tons. This shift towards a more circular economy will be crucial in reducing the industry’s carbon emissions.
The study outlines three scenarios for the industry’s future, each with slight differences in carbon reduction amounts. However, all scenarios point to a steady decline in CO2 emissions. By 2060, the steel industry is estimated to emit between 90 and 198 million tons of CO2. Achieving carbon neutrality will require innovative technologies like carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) and carbon sinks.
So, what does this mean for the energy sector? The changes in the steel industry’s iron resource structure, production processes, and energy consumption will be profound. Coal, the traditional fuel of the steel industry, will see a dramatic decrease in consumption, down by 76% to 89% by 2060. In its place, electricity and hydrogen will rise in prominence. Electricity consumption will stabilize at around 310-480 billion kWh, while hydrogen consumption could reach 10 million tons.
The shift away from coal and towards electricity and hydrogen represents a significant opportunity for the energy sector. It’s a chance to innovate, to develop new technologies, and to create new markets. But it’s also a challenge. The energy sector will need to adapt, to provide the clean, reliable power that the steel industry will increasingly rely on.
The study, published in the Journal of Engineering Sciences (translated from ‘工程科学学报’), offers a glimpse into the future of the steel industry. It’s a future that’s greener, more efficient, and more sustainable. But it’s also a future that’s uncertain, a future that will require innovation, adaptation, and collaboration. As Cui puts it, “The path to carbon neutrality is not an easy one, but it’s a journey we must undertake. And with the right strategies and technologies, we can make it a journey of opportunity and growth.”
The research by Cui and his team is more than just a forecast. It’s a call to action, a roadmap for the steel industry’s low-carbon transformation. And as the industry adapts, so too will the energy sector, creating new opportunities and challenges along the way. The future of steel is green, and the energy sector is set to play a pivotal role in making that future a reality.
