In the heart of Europe’s green transition, a storm is brewing in the road freight sector. As the European Union pushes ahead with its ambitious decarbonization goals, a new study from the Gdynia Maritime University is sending ripples through the industry, warning of potential market upheaval and commercial impacts that could reshape the competitive landscape. Lead author Maciej Matczak, from the Department of Logistics and Transport Systems, has delved into the complexities of the EU’s push for electric trucks, and his findings paint a picture of significant change on the horizon.
The EU’s green agenda, spearheaded by the European Green Deal and the Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy, is driving a rapid shift towards zero-emission vehicles. While the environmental benefits are clear, Matczak’s research, published in the journal Energies, reveals that the transition could have profound economic and social consequences, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Eastern Europe.
At the core of the issue is the high upfront cost of electric trucks, which could price out smaller operators and lead to a wave of consolidation in the market. “The introduction of electric trucks will redefine the market structure, eliminating the small carriers and activating horizontal integration,” Matczak explains. This could lead to a more oligopolistic market, with a handful of large companies dominating the scene.
The research highlights that while large transport companies may have the resources to invest in electric fleets and sustainable strategies, SMEs—particularly those in Eastern Europe—are likely to struggle. “The economic viability of SMEs is poor; thus, the introduction of battery electric trucks would be beyond its reach,” the study notes. This could lead to a significant shift in the market, with smaller operators either forced out or absorbed by larger competitors.
The implications for the energy sector are significant. As the demand for electric trucks grows, so too will the need for charging infrastructure and renewable energy sources to power them. This presents a substantial opportunity for energy companies, but also a challenge in terms of grid management and investment in new technologies.
Moreover, the study suggests that the costs of this transition will ultimately be borne by consumers and taxpayers. “The costs of the transition will be covered by citizens, as customers, in the prices of products and transport service, or as taxpayers, in public support programs,” Matczak warns. This could lead to higher prices for goods and services, as well as increased public spending on support programs.
The research also raises questions about the pace of the transition. Matczak argues that a more gradual implementation of the EU’s decarbonization measures could help mitigate some of the negative economic and social effects. “It is necessary to indicate the recommendations for the regulator (EC) related to considering the possibility of spreading over time the currently implemented sustainable smart mobility strategy,” he suggests.
As the EU continues to push ahead with its green agenda, the findings of this study serve as a stark reminder of the complexities involved in the transition to a low-carbon economy. While the environmental benefits are clear, the economic and social impacts cannot be ignored. As Matczak’s research shows, the road to decarbonization is fraught with challenges, and the path forward will require careful navigation to ensure a just and equitable transition for all.
The study, published in Energies, is a call to action for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and energy companies alike. As the EU’s green agenda continues to gain momentum, the need for comprehensive, evidence-based research has never been greater. The future of the road freight sector hangs in the balance, and the choices made today will shape the industry for decades to come.