France is at a crossroads in its energy transition, and the path it chooses could dramatically reshape its energy landscape. New research from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) paints a stark picture: unless France overhauls its permitting process and creates a more inviting investment climate, it will miss its offshore wind targets and struggle to replace its ageing nuclear fleet.
Since 2011, France has conducted numerous tenders for offshore wind projects, yet it has only managed to bring 1.5GW of capacity online. This is a mere 1% of the country’s electricity mix, lagging far behind its northwest European neighbours. The IEEFA report warns that, at the current pace, France might only have 3GW of operational offshore wind by 2032, far short of the 18GW target set for 2035.
The implications are significant. Offshore wind could play a crucial role in replacing the nuclear reactors set to be decommissioned in the coming years. However, the current trajectory suggests that the technology will play a limited role in this transition. “A combination of complex permitting, legal challenges and focus on nuclear power have held back offshore wind development in France,” said Jonathan Bruegel, IEEFA power sector analyst and the report’s author.
The report highlights a lack of political and financial support for offshore wind, which has failed to provide the same level of certainty for investors as seen in other European countries. To turn the tide, France must streamline offshore wind licensing, shorten the timeframe for legal challenges, and develop a structured transition plan that prioritises offshore wind and other renewables as nuclear plants are phased out.
Moreover, France’s transmission system operator must modernise the grid to handle intermittent renewables, and the country must reform market regulations to make offshore wind projects more attractive to investors. This includes providing stable policies and incentives to diversify energy investments.
The report’s findings should serve as a wake-up call for French policymakers. The country’s energy security and its ability to transition from a nuclear-dominated power mix depend on it. “Unlocking the potential of France’s offshore wind resources will help the country succeed in its transition to a more balanced system with significant levels of renewables,” Bruegel stated.
The coming years will be pivotal. France must decide whether to double down on its nuclear focus or to embrace offshore wind as a key pillar of its energy future. The choice will not only shape the country’s energy mix but also its energy security and its ability to meet its climate goals. The time for action is now, and the stakes are high. The energy sector is watching, and the world is waiting to see which path France will choose.
