In a significant geopolitical shift, a delegation of major Chinese energy firms descended upon Kazakhstan in February 2025, led by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT). This move, a direct response to retaliatory tariffs on US energy imports, signals Beijing’s aggressive pursuit of diversified supply chains and reduced dependence on Western markets. The visit underscores China’s commitment to deepening economic ties in Central Asia, a region traditionally dominated by Russia but increasingly influenced by China’s economic prowess.
China’s strategy in Central Asia is multifaceted, leveraging trade, infrastructure investment, and energy cooperation to cement its position. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been pivotal in this regard, with Beijing’s economic partnerships and infrastructure projects filling the void left by a diminishing US presence and a Russia preoccupied with its conflict in Ukraine. China has swiftly become Central Asia’s primary trade partner, surpassing even Russia in economic influence. In 2023, trade between China and Central Asia soared to $89.4 billion, marking a 27% increase from the previous year. This surge is not just about numbers; it reflects China’s strategic investments, trade agreements, and infrastructure projects designed to solidify its economic presence.
Kazakhstan stands out as Beijing’s most significant economic ally in the region, with trade reaching $43.8 billion by the end of 2024, a 9% rise from 2023. Uzbekistan, too, has elevated its ties with China to an “all-weather” comprehensive strategic partnership, aiming to boost trade from $14 billion to $20 billion. Chinese investments in Uzbekistan’s renewable energy sector have grown fivefold, highlighting Beijing’s focus on sustainable development.
Infrastructure development is a cornerstone of China’s engagement in Central Asia. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway, a flagship project, aims to provide China with direct access to the region, reducing dependence on Russian transit networks. This project, signed in June 2024, aligns with Beijing’s broader goal of diversifying trade routes, particularly amid global disruptions.
China’s influence extends beyond transportation infrastructure into the energy sector. The China-Central Asia Gas Pipeline, spanning Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and China, is crucial to Beijing’s energy security strategy. This infrastructure ensures a steady supply of natural gas while providing Central Asian states with an alternative to Russian-controlled routes. In October 2023, KazMunayGas (KMG) and China National Chemical Engineering Group Corporation (CNCEC) agreed to construct a gas turbine power plant at the Atyrau oil refinery, aiming to enhance power supply reliability. Similarly, QazaqGaz and Geo-Jade Petroleum Corporation are set to develop the Pridorozhnoye gas field in Turkistan Region. China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is implementing four oil and gas projects in collaboration with Kazakhstan’s Samruk-Kazyna. On a regional scale, PetroChina plans to resume construction of Line D of the Central Asia–China Gas Pipeline in 2024, further strengthening China’s energy ties with the region.
In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Beijing plays a dominant role in the extraction of essential minerals. China’s molybdenum imports from Kazakhstan increased to around $19.6 million in 2022, while 1.5% of Tajikistan’s total exports to China were zinc, and 17.5% were copper. These figures demonstrate China’s rising influence over Central Asia’s minerals and the potential for raw material exploitation.
Despite China’s growing economic footprint, Central Asian states remain cautious about excessive dependence and actively seek to diversify their partnerships, including engagement with the United States. Beijing has heavily invested in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, financing essential infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges, hospitals, and government buildings. These investments reflect China’s broader strategy of fostering economic development to ensure regional stability. By funding key projects, Beijing not only stimulates economic growth but also deepens its political influence by cultivating relationships with local elites.
The 2023 China-Central Asia summit in
