In the global push towards net-zero emissions, the energy sector faces a daunting challenge: the scarcity of critical materials essential for power generation technologies. A recent study published in Nature Communications, conducted by Huijuan Dong of the School of Environmental Science and Engineering at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, sheds light on how the market share of specific sub-technologies within renewable energy systems can significantly impact the demand for these crucial materials. The findings could revolutionize how we approach the energy transition, with profound implications for both policy and industry.
The research delves into the material constraints that could hinder the shift to renewable energy, focusing on nineteen critical materials. Dong and her team analyzed China’s ambitious carbon neutrality scenario, revealing that the transition to a low-carbon power system could result in a staggering 52.2 megatonnes of cumulative material demand by 2060—more than 2.7 times the demand under a business-as-usual scenario. This stark increase underscores the urgent need to strategize and mitigate material constraints to ensure a smooth transition.
The study highlights that the market share of specific sub-technologies, particularly solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power, plays a pivotal role in determining material demand. As Dong explains, “The power generation system transition within China’s carbon neutrality scenario results in 52.2 megatonnes of cumulative material demand by 2060, approximately 2.7 times that of the business-as-usual scenario.” This means that the choices we make today about which technologies to prioritize will have far-reaching consequences for the availability of critical materials tomorrow.
One of the most concerning findings is the potential for a 56-fold increase in the demand for gallium, a key component in thin-film solar PV technologies. This surge could lead to severe material constraints, not just for gallium but also for other critical materials like terbium, germanium, tellurium, indium, uranium, and copper. Dong’s research warns that without careful planning, these constraints could derail the energy transition. In a statement that underscores the urgency of the situation, Dong notes, “Material constraints are likely to occur for gallium, terbium, germanium, tellurium, indium, uranium, and copper.”
The study emphasizes the importance of considering sub-technology market shares when evaluating future material constraints. This insight is crucial for policymakers and industry stakeholders, as it highlights the need for a nuanced approach to energy transition planning. By understanding how different sub-technologies impact material demand, we can make more informed decisions about which technologies to invest in and promote.
The research also introduces the concept of “importance value,” which measures the ratio of power sector material demand to all-sector material demand. For gallium, this value is projected to increase to 50% due to the rising demand for gallium arsenide and permanent magnet sub-technologies. This metric provides a valuable tool for assessing the relative importance of different materials in the energy transition, helping to prioritize research and development efforts.
As the energy sector navigates the complexities of the transition to net-zero, Dong’s findings offer a roadmap for mitigating material constraints and ensuring a sustainable future. By considering the market share of specific sub-technologies, policymakers and industry leaders can make strategic decisions that balance the need for renewable energy with the availability of critical materials. This research, published in Nature Communications, is a significant contribution to the field, providing valuable insights that could shape future developments in the energy sector.
