In the quest for net-zero emissions, Canada faces a daunting task: not just reducing its carbon footprint, but also addressing its historical carbon debt. New research from Kasra Motlaghzadeh, a researcher at the University of Waterloo’s Department of System Design Engineering, sheds light on the critical role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies in achieving this goal. The study, published in ‘Communications Earth & Environment’, suggests that Canada’s carbon removal obligations could be significantly higher than previously thought, with gigaton-scale efforts needed post-2050.
Motlaghzadeh and his team used integrated assessment modeling to explore Canada’s remaining carbon budgets, factoring in various equity principles. The findings are stark: cumulative negative emissions between 2050 and 2100 could surge from 7.5 gigatons of CO2 in the Net-Zero scenario to a staggering 20.3 gigatons in equity-informed scenarios. This dramatic increase underscores the need for robust CDR strategies that go beyond traditional mitigation efforts.
“Our analysis shows that Canada’s historical emissions and its commitment to equity principles significantly increase its carbon removal obligations,” Motlaghzadeh explained. “This isn’t just about meeting net-zero targets; it’s about addressing the carbon debt we’ve accumulated over decades.”
The research highlights a portfolio of CDR technologies that could play a pivotal role in Canada’s future. By 2100, a combination of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, direct air capture, and enhanced weathering could contribute up to 500 million tons of CO2 removals per year. These technologies, while promising, require substantial investment and technological advancements.
The projected growth rates for CDR technologies, ranging from 2.8% to 16% per year, are ambitious but not unprecedented. Motlaghzadeh draws parallels with historical adoption rates of technologies like ammonia synthesis and biomass consumption in Canada, suggesting that with the right policies and investments, these CDR technologies could become mainstream.
“The historical adoption rates of technologies like ammonia synthesis and biomass consumption in Canada provide a roadmap for how we can accelerate the deployment of CDR technologies,” Motlaghzadeh said. “It’s about learning from the past and applying those lessons to our future efforts.”
The commercial implications for the energy sector are profound. Companies involved in CDR technologies stand to benefit from increased investment and policy support. However, the transition will require significant innovation and collaboration between the public and private sectors. The energy industry must prepare for a future where CDR is not just an option, but a necessity.
The research also emphasizes the importance of socio-economic and technological sensitivity analysis. While individual CDR technologies may vary in their roles, the overall need for CDR remains essential for Canada’s post-net-zero commitments. This underscores the need for a diversified approach to CDR, ensuring that multiple technologies are developed and deployed to meet the country’s ambitious climate goals.
As Canada and other nations grapple with the challenges of achieving net-zero emissions, this research provides a clear path forward. By embracing equity principles and investing in CDR technologies, Canada can address its historical carbon debt while paving the way for a sustainable future. The study, published in ‘Earth and Environment’, offers a compelling case for why CDR must be at the forefront of Canada’s climate strategy.
