As the global push for renewable energy accelerates, Switzerland is at the forefront of a pioneering study that could redefine how countries plan their electricity systems amidst the unpredictable nature of weather. A recent article published in ‘Environmental Research: Energy’ highlights groundbreaking research led by Collin Killenberger from the University of Geneva and the University of Basel. This study aims to design a weather-resilient electricity system that can effectively harness variable renewable energy sources (VRES) while ensuring reliability and cost-effectiveness.
Killenberger and his team utilized the EXPANSE electricity system model to simulate various scenarios for Switzerland’s energy landscape in 2035. By analyzing 25 years of historical weather data, they sought to avoid the pitfalls of over-optimization based on a single year’s weather patterns. The findings reveal that a solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity of 35 GW, without any wind power, could meet Switzerland’s ambitious target of generating 35 terawatt-hours (TWh) of new renewable electricity in 95% of the analyzed weather years.
However, the researchers caution that if the country limits its winter electricity imports to 5 TWh per year, as current policies suggest, an additional 10 GW of wind power would be necessary to maintain that same level of resilience. “Our research demonstrates that a diverse energy portfolio is essential for weather resilience,” Killenberger emphasized. “By integrating various renewable sources, we can ensure a stable and reliable energy supply even in the face of climatic variability.”
The study also explored alternative scenarios through a methodology known as modeling to generate alternatives (MGA). This approach allowed the researchers to define a range of potential system designs capable of achieving the desired resilience levels. For instance, combinations of 12 GW of solar PV with 18 GW of wind power or 20 GW of solar PV with 13.5 GW of wind power could also meet the 95% resilience target.
This research is not just an academic exercise; it has significant commercial implications for the energy sector. As countries worldwide strive to transition to greener energy solutions, the insights gleaned from Switzerland’s modeling can be adapted to various contexts. The ability to predict and prepare for weather variability could enhance investment confidence in renewable technologies, ultimately driving down costs and accelerating deployment.
The implications of this study extend beyond Switzerland’s borders. Countries grappling with high shares of VRES in their electricity systems can utilize the methodologies developed in this research to bolster their resilience against weather fluctuations. This could lead to a more stable and sustainable energy future, fostering economic growth and environmental stewardship.
As the world watches Switzerland’s journey toward a more resilient energy system, the findings of Killenberger and his colleagues serve as a beacon for other nations. By prioritizing a diverse energy mix and leveraging historical weather data, the path to a reliable and sustainable energy future becomes clearer—an essential step in combating climate change and securing energy independence.
