Cuba’s National Electric System (SEN) teeters on the brink of collapse, as a staggering number of thermal power units remain either out of service or undergoing maintenance. The situation has reached a critical juncture, with the unexpected departure of the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant in Matanzas, a facility pivotal to the country’s energy supply. This incident has reignited fears of a nationwide blackout, reminiscent of the recent widespread outages that have plagued the island.
On Saturday, disruptions began early in the morning and extended into the next day, with the Electric Union (UNE) reporting a maximum impact of 1,384 MW during peak demand hours. The emergency shutdown of the Guiteras plant significantly exacerbated the situation, pushing the power supply to its limits. The anticipated return of the Guiteras plant on January 22 offers a glimmer of hope, but the broader picture remains bleak. Current outages at the CTE Mariel and Felton power plants, along with ongoing maintenance at various facilities, have left the SEN grappling with a thermal generation deficit of 275 MW.
The ramifications of this energy crisis extend far beyond mere inconvenience. For millions of Cubans, the persistent blackouts have disrupted daily life and essential services. Hospitals, schools, and telecommunications have all felt the impact, with some regions enduring outages that last over 24 hours. The most affected provinces, including Santiago de Cuba, Guantánamo, Holguín, and Havana, are witnessing a profound deterioration in quality of life, leading to public discontent and protests.
The roots of this crisis can be traced to a confluence of factors, including inadequate maintenance of aging thermal power plants, a critical shortage of fuel, and a lack of investment in electrical infrastructure. While authorities cite economic challenges and difficulties in procuring spare parts as primary culprits, analysts argue that the regime’s prioritization of the tourism sector has left energy needs sidelined. The choices made by policymakers reflect a troubling trend: the neglect of vital infrastructure in favor of short-term economic gains.
As the SEN struggles to meet a maximum demand of 3,100 MW with an available capacity of only 1,750 MW, the forecast for the coming weeks remains grim. If current conditions persist, the anticipated deficit could soar to 1,420 MW during peak hours. This precarious balance underscores the urgency of addressing the systemic issues plaguing Cuba’s energy sector.
The ongoing energy crisis not only poses immediate challenges but also raises profound questions about the future of Cuba’s energy landscape. The government faces a critical decision: will it invest in the necessary infrastructure and maintenance to stabilize the SEN, or will it continue down a path of neglect, risking further unrest among a population already strained by power shortages? The choices made in the coming days and weeks will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of Cuba’s energy sector for years to come. This moment serves as a stark reminder that energy resilience is not merely an operational concern; it is a matter of national stability and social cohesion.
