Despite the overwhelming public support for environmental protection, the 2024 presidential election revealed a stark reality: climate change was not a decisive issue. Former President Trump’s signals of disdain for international greenhouse gas (GHG) targets and his unabashed support for fossil fuel interests, particularly oil and gas production, cast a long shadow over the clean energy transition. The question now looms—will recent strides in reducing domestic GHG emissions continue, or will they falter under the weight of a new administration?
The landscape of energy is shifting, fueled by market trends and significant legislative moves made during the Biden administration. The transition from a fossil fuel-centric energy infrastructure to more reliable and cost-effective clean energy technologies is gaining momentum. However, the federal government still holds considerable power over energy-related regulations. While new major energy legislation seems unlikely in the near term, the potential for the current administration to weaken pollution regulations, reduce incentives for renewables, and open up fossil fuel production areas remains a real threat. These changes could stymie progress, as they often take time to implement and are susceptible to legal challenges.
Yet, it’s crucial to recognize that a single administration is unlikely to derail the clean energy transition that has been set in motion. New energy technologies and evolving markets, alongside proactive state climate leadership, are likely to counteract any federal missteps. Energy usage accounts for approximately 74% of all domestic man-made GHGs, primarily from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heating, and transportation. States and cities wield significant influence in reducing these emissions by opting for renewable resources and enacting energy efficiency measures.
During Trump’s first term, many states emerged as leaders in combating climate change, and that trend shows no signs of slowing. The average age of traditional power plants is now 45 years, and the outdated infrastructure is proving increasingly unreliable. As environmental and safety issues mount, the costs associated with operating these old plants are soaring, prompting a shift toward more dependable and affordable energy technologies. States are beginning to leverage their authority to redirect investments toward clean energy solutions, as evidenced by the 25 states and Washington, D.C., that now mandate utilities to expand renewable resource usage.
The economic landscape is changing rapidly. The Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for new renewable wind and solar facilities is now significantly lower than the cost of running existing coal-fired plants, leading to a wave of retirements in the latter. Falling costs in electricity storage infrastructure are also paving the way for more integrated renewable projects, making them economically competitive with natural gas plants. In 2023, a staggering 77% of utility-scale facilities in development were new solar and wind projects.
As states embrace new technologies, they’re also scrutinizing whether public investments in grid upgrades are worthwhile compared to traditional utility generation plants. This scrutiny is essential as the national electric rate recently saw a 4.5% increase, further widening the gap between traditional energy sources and new renewables. Clean energy resources are proving to be a bipartisan issue, with states like Oklahoma and Texas significantly advancing their clean energy transitions despite their historical ties to fossil fuels.
The political landscape is evolving, too. The recent election didn’t drastically shift state politics, but the demand for electricity and financial incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act are likely to bolster support for clean energy technologies. Recent legislative actions in states like Massachusetts and New York signal a renewed commitment to climate leadership, while a bipartisan coalition of governors recently endorsed a domestic climate target for 2035.
Looking ahead, the interplay between market dynamics, technological advancements, and state governance will shape the future of climate progress. The potential for delays in coal plant retirements exists, but the high operational costs of these legacy plants make their continued use increasingly untenable. Even with the possibility of federal actions that could slow clean energy initiatives, the momentum generated by state and local authorities is poised to keep the clean energy train chugging along. As businesses race to meet rising electricity demands, the clean energy transition is not just a trend—it’s becoming an imperative. The road ahead may be bumpy, but the journey toward a sustainable energy future is well underway, and it’s driven by a collective will that transcends political rhetoric.
