The World Bank’s recent report on Vietnam’s electric vehicle (EV) transition lays out a comprehensive strategy that could reshape the nation’s transport landscape. With ambitious targets to electrify 50% of urban vehicles by 2030 and achieve 100% electrification of buses and taxis in the same timeframe, Vietnam is stepping into the future with a clear roadmap. This transition isn’t just a lofty goal; it’s a necessity, as the country aims to slash greenhouse gas emissions significantly—by an estimated 5.3 million tons of CO2 equivalent by 2030 and a staggering 226 million tons by 2050.
Mariam J. Sherman, the World Bank Country Director for Vietnam, Cambodia, and Lao PDR, emphasizes the importance of collaboration among government bodies, private investors, and citizens. This collective effort is crucial for reshaping the vehicle market and altering mobility patterns. The report outlines five critical areas that need attention: enhancing EV supply and production, stimulating consumer demand, expanding charging infrastructure, preparing the power sector for increased demand, and developing a skilled workforce. Each of these elements is interconnected, and neglecting one could derail the entire transition.
The focus on two-wheeled vehicles is particularly noteworthy. With two-wheelers being the dominant mode of transport in Vietnam, the report suggests that targeted policy interventions could boost the share of electric two-wheelers from a mere 12% to 75% by 2035. This includes facilitating consumer financing and implementing safety standards, which are essential for building public trust and encouraging adoption. As the landscape shifts, passenger cars are expected to take center stage post-2035, with electric vehicles projected to dominate the market if the necessary infrastructure is established.
Public transport and commercial vehicles present another challenge. Despite representing only 2% of registered vehicles, buses and trucks contribute a staggering 65% of emissions. Transitioning these vehicles to electric is critical but requires robust policy measures to tackle low ridership and ensure financial viability. The report highlights the potential for electrifying small commercial trucks, while also advocating for improved fuel standards and a shift towards railway and waterway transport for larger heavy-duty trucks.
As the demand for EV charging ramps up, the power sector will need to brace for change. While the immediate impact on electricity demand is manageable, projections indicate a need for a 5% increase in electricity generation and a 4% boost in network capacity by 2035. By 2050, these figures could swell to 30% and 15%, respectively. This necessitates a hefty investment—up to $9 billion by 2030 and $14 billion annually from 2031 to 2050—to ensure the power sector can keep pace with the burgeoning EV market.
The report, backed by the Australian Government, paints a vivid picture of a future where electric mobility is not just a dream but an achievable reality for Vietnam. The question now is whether all stakeholders can come together to make this vision a reality. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, but the potential benefits—lower emissions, improved public health, and a robust economy—are too significant to ignore. As Vietnam charts its course toward a greener future, the lessons learned could serve as a blueprint for other nations grappling with similar transitions.
