As the world shifts away from fossil fuels towards low-carbon energy solutions, the demand for critical minerals, particularly rare-earth elements (REE) and lithium, is surging. A recent study led by V. E. Shunkov from the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics highlights the complexities and challenges of forecasting the future use of these essential resources in technologies such as electric vehicles and wind energy.
The research underscores the pivotal role that rare-earth metals play in the development of clean energy technologies. “The growth in global demand for rare-earth metals brings serious pressure on today’s supply,” Shunkov noted, emphasizing the urgency of addressing supply chain vulnerabilities. The study reveals that while lithium is crucial for electric vehicle batteries, neodymium, a key component in wind turbine generators, is equally vital for achieving a sustainable energy future.
One of the major concerns raised in the article is the monopolistic control of REE supplies by China, which poses significant risks to global energy transition efforts. The absence of equivalent substitutes and the low rate of processing further exacerbate these challenges. Shunkov’s research delves into these pressing issues, analyzing both simple and complex forecasting models to evaluate long-term consumption trends of REE and lithium.
The findings suggest that existing models are limited in their predictive capabilities due to the numerous assumptions they rely on. To address this, the authors propose a new approach that could provide more accurate assessments of future resource needs. “Our goal is to answer the pressing question of how to satisfy current and future demand for power,” Shunkov explained. This innovative methodology aims to assist scientists and policymakers in crafting sustainable energy strategies that can withstand climatic challenges.
The implications of this research are profound for the energy sector. As countries ramp up their investments in renewable energy technologies, understanding the supply dynamics of critical minerals will be essential for avoiding potential bottlenecks. The ability to accurately forecast resource needs can influence everything from policy decisions to corporate strategies, ultimately shaping the trajectory of the global energy landscape.
This research is published in ‘Вестник Российского экономического университета имени Г. В. Плеханова’ (Bulletin of the Plekhanov Russian Economic University), and it serves as a crucial resource for industry stakeholders looking to navigate the complexities of the energy transition. For more information on the research and insights from V. E. Shunkov, you can visit Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
