The transportation sector is at a crossroads, with urgent calls for decarbonization echoing globally. A recent study led by Mohamed Ali Saafi from the Strategic Transport Analysis Team at Aramco Overseas Company sheds light on the potential of low-carbon technologies in freight transport, offering a roadmap for commercial viability in a sector notorious for its greenhouse gas emissions.
The study introduces the Mobility and Energy Transportation Analysis (META) Model, a sophisticated optimization tool designed to project the acceptance of both conventional and alternative fuel technologies in freight transport. This model not only quantifies greenhouse gas emissions but also evaluates the economic feasibility of emerging technologies, such as Mobile Carbon Capture (MCC) and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). “Our analysis reveals that MCC could achieve a market share exceeding 50% of all internal combustion engine vehicle sales in regions like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the European Union by 2035,” Saafi stated, emphasizing the model’s implications for future freight transport.
The urgency for decarbonization stems from the transportation sector’s significant contribution to global emissions, accounting for approximately 14% of greenhouse gases in 2022. Within the European context, heavy-duty vehicles alone are responsible for about one-fifth of road transport emissions. Recognizing this, the European Union is moving towards stricter regulations, including a ban on new sales of internal combustion engine light-duty vehicles by 2035. The research underscores the importance of synthetic fuels and electric trucks, but it also highlights the challenges these technologies face, such as long charging times and insufficient infrastructure.
In Saudi Arabia, a country traditionally reliant on gasoline and diesel, the landscape is shifting. The Kingdom aims for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2060 and has begun deploying battery-electric trucks in alignment with its Vision 2030. Saafi noted, “The partnership between Quantrom AG and Petromin Corporation to deliver battery-electric trucks is a significant step towards decarbonizing mobility in Saudi Arabia.” This collaboration exemplifies the broader trend of innovation and investment in sustainable transport solutions.
The META model stands out for its comprehensive approach, integrating consumer behavior modeling to assess market penetration of various technologies. Unlike traditional models that often overlook intangible costs, META factors in elements such as recharging time, cargo capacity limitations, and consumer acceptance. This nuanced analysis provides a clearer picture of the economic landscape for freight transport, making it a valuable tool for policymakers and industry stakeholders alike.
As the research highlights, the adoption of MCC could become a viable alternative for reducing emissions from conventional heavy-duty vehicles, particularly in regions where electric infrastructure is still developing. The study’s findings suggest that as companies strive for sustainability, the economic implications of adopting low-carbon technologies will be significant. “By addressing the hidden costs and uncertainties associated with zero-emission trucks, we can foster a more sustainable future for the freight sector,” Saafi concluded.
This research, published in the journal ‘Energies,’ not only contributes to the dialogue on sustainable practices in transportation but also paves the way for strategic investments in low-carbon technologies. As the pressure mounts for the energy sector to adapt, the insights from this study may very well shape the future of freight transport, guiding it towards a more sustainable and commercially viable path. For more information about Saafi’s research team, visit lead_author_affiliation.
