A recent study led by Boyu Cheng from the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Cornell University has shed light on the earthquake risks facing Los Angeles’ electric power transmission system. Published in the journal “IEEE Access,” this research presents a comprehensive probabilistic assessment of how seismic events could impact power reliability at a granular level—specifically, the census tract level.
The study utilized a detailed dc load flow analysis across 351 risk-adjusted earthquake scenarios, each accompanied by 12 distinct damage scenarios. This rigorous approach allowed the researchers to quantify potential load shed during power restoration efforts following an earthquake. The findings indicate that damage to substations is the primary factor contributing to power outages, with generator damage also significant but less impactful than substation failures. In contrast, damage to transmission lines had a minimal effect on overall load shed.
Cheng’s research highlights the importance of identifying vulnerable areas within Los Angeles. By pinpointing which census tracts are most at risk, energy providers and city planners can prioritize infrastructure improvements and emergency preparedness strategies. This targeted approach could lead to enhanced resilience for the electric grid, ultimately benefiting both the economy and public safety.
An intriguing aspect of the study is its exploration of the role of residential energy storage systems paired with rooftop solar installations. The analysis suggests that these systems can significantly mitigate load shed during power restoration efforts. Cheng notes, “The deployment of storage paired with rooftop solar reduces the load shed during the restoration process, but the distribution of this benefit is correlated with household income and whether the dwelling is owned or rented.” This finding underscores the potential for solar energy solutions to not only enhance grid reliability but also to address equity issues in energy access.
For the energy sector, this research opens up commercial opportunities in developing and deploying advanced energy storage technologies and solar solutions, particularly in high-risk areas. Companies that invest in these technologies could play a crucial role in enhancing the resilience of urban power systems. Furthermore, as cities like Los Angeles increasingly focus on sustainability and disaster preparedness, there may be growing demand for innovative solutions that integrate renewable energy sources with robust backup systems.
Overall, Cheng’s work provides valuable insights into the intersection of seismic risk and energy infrastructure, offering a roadmap for enhancing the reliability and resilience of power transmission systems in earthquake-prone regions.
