A recent study published in Environmental Research Letters sheds light on the multi-dimensional impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Sudan, revealing both opportunities and challenges for various sectors. Led by Mohammed Basheer from the Department of Civil & Mineral Engineering at the University of Toronto and the Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute at Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, the research employs an integrated simulation framework to assess how the GERD will affect Sudan’s economy and environment.
The GERD, which is set to begin long-term operations in 2025, is expected to have a significant influence on several ecosystem services, including hydropower generation, flood regulation, and irrigation water supply. The study’s findings indicate that the dam will likely boost hydropower generation and improve flood control, which could have positive implications for energy production and disaster management. Specifically, the research suggests that Sudan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could see an increase of just over 0.1% in 2025, contingent on river flow conditions.
However, not all sectors will benefit equally. The study highlights potential negative consequences for traditional industries such as fired clay brick production, which may struggle due to changes in water availability and economic dynamics. This could impact local employment and the construction sector, which relies on these materials. “Recognizing the differences in impacts across sectors and income groups, the study emphasizes the need for interventions that ameliorate negative effects,” Basheer notes, underlining the importance of targeted strategies to support affected industries.
The integrated simulation framework used in the study combines a river infrastructure system model, a flood model, and a Computable General Equilibrium Model, allowing for a comprehensive evaluation of the dam’s effects. While the research captures several critical impacts, it also points out that further investigation is necessary to understand the broader environmental consequences, especially concerning agriculture and soil fertility.
For businesses and policymakers, the findings present both challenges and opportunities. The anticipated growth in hydropower generation could open doors for investment in energy infrastructure and related sectors. However, stakeholders in the brick production and construction industries may need to adapt to the changing landscape, possibly exploring alternative materials or production methods to mitigate negative impacts.
Overall, the study emphasizes the interconnectedness of water resources and economic sectors, reinforcing the importance of integrated approaches to dam evaluation. As Sudan prepares for the operational phase of the GERD, understanding these dynamics will be crucial for fostering sustainable development and maximizing the benefits of this significant infrastructure project.
