A recent study published in Nature Communications highlights the significant role that non-energy uses of fossil fuels play in the chemical industry and how addressing this issue is crucial for a successful transition away from fossil fuels. Lead author Marianne Zanon-Zotin, from the Centre for Energy and Environmental Economics at the Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, emphasizes that approximately 13% of global fossil fuel consumption is dedicated to non-combustion purposes, particularly in the production of chemicals.
The research reveals that fossil fuel processing plants, such as petroleum refineries, operate within complex interdependent material and energy systems. This complexity presents challenges for energy systems aiming to phase out fossil fuels without simultaneously considering these non-energy outputs. Zanon-Zotin points out that “the transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems is more challenging without addressing the non-energy outputs.”
Looking towards the future, the study utilizes a global integrated assessment model to analyze potential scenarios for the chemical sector. It finds that by 2050, up to 62% of total feedstock used in the chemical industry could come from alternative sources, provided there is a significant increase in biomass utilization and advancements in carbon capture technologies. This shift not only presents an opportunity for innovation within the sector but also aligns with broader climate goals.
The implications for commercial sectors are substantial. Companies involved in biomass production and carbon capture technologies could see increased demand as industries seek to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels. Furthermore, if carbon storage in bioplastics is effectively utilized, the chemical sector could potentially reduce its annual CO2 emissions to as low as -1 gigaton by 2050. This negative emissions scenario presents a compelling business case for investing in sustainable practices.
Zanon-Zotin’s research underscores the need for a comprehensive approach to energy transition, one that includes both energy and non-energy uses of fossil fuels. As industries adapt to stricter climate policies, the insights from this study could guide strategic investments and innovations, ensuring that the chemical sector remains viable and sustainable in a rapidly changing energy landscape.
