A recent study published in “Environmental Research: Energy” reveals significant insights into the potential of geothermal energy in the United States, particularly through the use of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). Currently, geothermal energy accounts for only 3.7 gigawatts (GW) of electricity generation in the U.S., primarily sourced from hydrothermal resources that are limited by geographic constraints. However, EGS technology, which harnesses heat from deep underground rock formations, presents an opportunity to expand geothermal energy access across a wider range of locations.
Lead author Chen Chen from the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Rice University highlights the importance of understanding the costs and performance of EGS to gauge its future deployment. The study utilizes updated drilling cost data and various scenarios regarding cost trends, emissions policies, and electricity demand to model the potential for geothermal energy generation through 2050.
One of the key findings is that while EGS currently incurs higher costs compared to hydrothermal resources, it has a greater potential for scalability across the nation. The report indicates that “future deployments of EGS depend strongly on projected cost reductions and emissions policies.” If costs can be reduced by over 70% from current levels, geothermal energy could emerge as the most economical carbon-free dispatchable resource available.
In practical terms, this means that EGS could contribute significantly to the energy mix if supportive policies are enacted. Under existing policies, the study projects that 3 GW of EGS capacity could be installed by 2050. This figure could rise to 11 GW with a 95% decarbonization policy and potentially skyrocket to 152 GW if full decarbonization is mandated.
The implications of this research are substantial for various sectors. For energy companies, investing in EGS technology could position them favorably in a future where renewable energy sources become increasingly critical to meet decarbonization goals. Additionally, the construction and engineering sectors may see a surge in demand for specialized services related to EGS development, from drilling to infrastructure support.
Chen emphasizes the regional potential, noting that “most geothermal would likely first be built in western states with the steepest subsurface temperature gradients.” This suggests that states with favorable geological conditions could lead the charge in geothermal energy development, creating localized economic opportunities and jobs.
As the U.S. grapples with the urgent need to transition to cleaner energy sources, the findings from this study underscore the potential of geothermal energy, particularly EGS, to play a vital role in achieving a sustainable energy future. The research not only sheds light on the challenges but also the commercial opportunities that lie ahead in the renewable energy landscape.
