Recent research published in the journal Environmental Research: Energy has shed light on the potential of geothermal power generation in the United States, particularly through enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Currently, geothermal energy contributes a mere 3.7 gigawatts (GW) of electricity, accounting for less than 1% of the nation’s energy mix. This limited output is primarily due to the geographical constraints of hydrothermal resources, which are the traditional sources of geothermal energy.
The study, led by Chen Chen from the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Rice University, emphasizes the promise of EGS, which can tap into heat from deep underground rock formations. Unlike hydrothermal systems, EGS can be deployed in a wider range of locations, potentially increasing the overall capacity for geothermal energy. However, the research indicates that EGS is currently more expensive than hydrothermal energy, which poses a challenge for its expansion.
The authors used updated drilling cost data and various scenarios for cost trends, emissions policies, and electricity demand to simulate the future of geothermal energy in the U.S. through 2050. They found that the limited availability of hydrothermal resources could cap deployments at around 18 GW across different scenarios. However, significant cost reductions could change the landscape dramatically. “Under cost trends that see over 70% reductions from our updated baseline, we project that EGS could become the least-cost carbon-free dispatchable resource,” Chen noted.
The implications for commercial sectors are substantial. If EGS costs drop significantly, it could lead to the construction of up to 152 GW of geothermal capacity by 2050, especially if aggressive decarbonization policies are put in place. This shift could open new markets for companies involved in geothermal technology, drilling, and infrastructure development. Furthermore, states with higher subsurface temperature gradients, particularly in the western U.S., are likely to see the first deployments of EGS, creating regional opportunities for local businesses.
The research highlights that while the current landscape favors wind and solar energy with storage solutions, the future of geothermal energy, particularly EGS, depends heavily on technological advancements and supportive policies. As the push for carbon-free electricity intensifies, the geothermal sector could play a critical role in achieving these goals, provided that costs are managed effectively.
