Recent research published in ‘Progress in Disaster Science’ has shed light on volcanic hazards in regions with limited data, specifically focusing on Ethiopia, Kenya, and Cabo Verde. The study, led by S.F. Jenkins from the Earth Observatory of Singapore, highlights the challenges posed by inadequate historical data on past eruptions, which can lead to an underestimation of volcanic risks.
The researchers evaluated nine volcanoes across these countries using a novel two-stage expert elicitation process. This method aims to gather insights from experts about potential volcanic activity, which was then combined with mapping, numerical hazard modeling, and geographic information system (GIS) analysis. The findings indicate that Fogo in Cabo Verde is the volcano most likely to erupt, with an average eruption interval of about 25 years. In contrast, the volcanoes Fentale, Longonot, and Suswa are considered to have the highest probability of experiencing a large explosive eruption approximately every 400 years.
The implications of this research are significant, particularly for sectors such as tourism, infrastructure development, and emergency management. The study identifies potential high-impact scenarios, such as the dispersal of volcanic ash over major cities like Nairobi, which is located just 55 kilometers from Suswa. This could disrupt daily life and pose risks to public safety and infrastructure, including geothermal power stations that are crucial for energy production.
Moreover, the findings indicate a projected increase in population and economic exposure to volcanic hazards by 2050. Jenkins emphasized the importance of improving knowledge about past eruptions, stating, “Understanding past eruption volumes, frequencies, and dates is key to reducing uncertainty.” This insight is critical for policymakers and businesses, as it can guide investment decisions and risk management strategies.
As international stakeholders seek to prioritize funding and develop risk reduction policies, this research provides valuable data that could inform future initiatives aimed at enhancing resilience against volcanic hazards. The study serves as a call to action for better data collection and risk assessment in regions that are vulnerable to volcanic activity, ultimately contributing to safer communities and sustainable development.
